At least one team's bubble popped last night following Saint Mary's impressive bid stealing win in the West Coast Conference Championship over Gonzaga. Despite Dickie V's repeated claims that Saint Mary's was a bubble team that should get in even if they lost last night, the reality was, Saint Mary's had zero chance of getting an at-large bid without that win. By winning though, and grabbing a second bid for the West Coast Conference, one less At-Large spot is now available for the rest of the field. By adding Saint Mary's to it ... somebody has to be dropped. We likely will never know who that team was (The NCAA doesn't tell us how teams outside the field were ranked), but we'll have a pretty good idea from who doesn't make it who the probable victims may have been.
In my current seed list, it was TCU that got dropped out of the field. That creates ripples in both directions on the bubble as well. I have Texas losing a first round bye, and now having to go to Dayton to take on Alabama in a play-in game. Oklahoma gets a spot closer to the cut line too, dropping into the grouping of 'Last 4 Byes'.
Going the other way, I have now taken Xavier out of consideration. Even if they make Big East Championship beating Creighton and Villanova, but fail to win it, I just don't see that being enough to get them over the cut line. NC State, Clemson and Florida now have the much more work to do, as the cut line moves up. Plenty of other teams are no doubt lamenting the Gael's victory last night as well.
Gonzaga would have locked down a #1 Seed with a win last night. By losing, they have left the door wide open to fall off the top line, if they haven't already. I have long thought that Gonzaga was safe on the 1 line unless they lost in the WCC tournament. If that happened, an incredibly soft schedule for the last 3 months would expose the Zags soft underbelly. The resume just isn't #1 Seed Quality. If any other team had one like it not named Gonzaga, we'd be talking about them as a 3 Seed. Come to think of it, we do have a team like that not named Gonzaga who is projected by many as a 3, and in some cases 4 ... it's Houston. Check out the side by side of them compare below:
The difference between these two teams is razor thin, and depending on what you place the most value you on, you could make a case for putting either one ahead of the other. What no one is talking about though is Houston as a #1 Seed, nor should they. This fact alone I believe proves the point. Gonzaga is being overvalued this morning in the wake of the loss last night. Yet, the talking heads like Lunardi insist Gonzaga is still a #1, and you're overreacting to one loss if you think otherwise. I think Seth Davis has it right. They're probably still a #1 this morning, but now exposed, and vulnerable to multiple teams passing them.
In my perfect world, where I'm the only one picking the field, Gonzaga is a high 3 Seed. However, I'm not and my goal is to figure out what the Committee is thinking. My assumption at this point is that Gonzaga probably still sits on the 1 line this morning with them. But as the week progresses, and the teams just below them build their resumes in the Conference Tournaments, Gonzaga will get overtaken. Duke, Kentucky (and/or Tennessee), and Michigan State almost certainly will pass them with Conference Tournament Championships. A more objective analysis would put them in jeopardy of falling behind Houston and Texas Tech should they win out as well. I'm not confident that the committee would be willing to move either of those teams (or LSU for that matter, should they win the SEC) ahead of the Zags.
- Northeastern - Colonial Conference
- Northern Kentucky - Horizon League
- Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast Conference
- North Dakota State - Summit League
- Saint Mary's - West Coast Conference
An interesting factoid from last night ... None of the 5 teams who won their conference tournaments entered it as the #1 Seed. In fact, of the 11 bids clinched so far, only 2 of them were #1 seeds in their respective conference tournaments (Wofford & Iona).
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