Monday, March 18, 2024

First Look at My Projections vs. The Official Bracket

67 of 68 Teams in the Field (Virginia in instead of Oklahoma) & 72 of 72 teams NCAA considered for field when including NCAA Final Four out
55 of 68 On or within One Seed Line (80.8 %)
29 Teams on the correct Seed Line (42.6%)
41 of 68 Teams within 2 spots of NCAA Final Ranking
314 of 408 Possible points in Bracket Matrix Scoring

Overall I'd give myself a B.

This was not an easy field to get the final last four teams in, or to seed the field after the 4 Seed Line. Given that, I feel pretty good about my work this year. The Committee definetely had some very controversial seeds assigned and I will cover what I believe were some of the more egregious decisions by the committee below.

Virginia In the Field

Complaining about the last team in compared to any number of teams left out is an annual tradition after the NCAA reveals its field. Who am I not to participate?
In most seasons, people arguing this are typically nit picking minor differences between a group of teams that had largely underwhelming seasons. This year, with 5 bid thieves, its different though. Several teams that would have qualified any other year, got left out. I had Virginia as the 1st Team out, and had Oklahoma instead. I had a feeling they would be included, but not because they earned it, but rather to increase the number of ACC teams in the field, and because this is a program that has won a championship within the last 5 years, which of course shouldn't be criteria to be included, but too often is, I think.

I wish I had followed my gut, as I did by including Michigan State, who was even less deserving than Virginia. I learned my lesson with the kid glove treatment most committees give to Izzo and Michigan State. Apparently now, Virginia and Tony Bennett seem to be getting the same type of consideration. More on Michigan State to come.
Looking at the chart below you can plainly see, by virtually any measure comparing their resume to Oklahoma (First team left out by committee), Virginia (Last Team In) did not belong in this tournament. Lets look at a side by side comparison:

Putting this Virginia in team appears to be driven by one metric ... how difficult of a non-conference schedule they played compared to Oklahoma. As a tie breaker between very similar resume's in which all other factors suggest the teams are otherwise equal, I have no probelm breaking the tie by rewarding the team that challenged itself more outside of thier conference play. But I can't for the life of me see how any one could objectively claim these two teams were otherwise equally deserving of inclusion except for the level of competition they played in their non-conference schedule.

The only other completely non-objective factors that I think may have been factors were the committee feeling strongly that the Big 12 getting 9 teams was too many ... and the ACC only getting 5 was too few. Neither of these factors should have been applied, if in fact they were. I suspect Virginia recently having won a National Title (2019) probably also helped.

The other two teams I hear people complaining the loudest about not making it ahead of either Virginia or Oklahoma were Saint John's and Indiana State. I did a similar compare using all four teams. I'll post it here and you can decide for yourself what order you would have put them in.

Underseeding the Mountain West Conference Teams (Except San Deigo State)

I'm not sure I've seen a conference have so many of its teams systematically seeded so much lower than expected by the larger 'bracketology' community as the Mountain West Conference (MWC) this year. The MWC got a record 6 teams into the tournament. One of those teams, New Mexico, got in as an automatic qualifier, but the committee spokesman made it clear that they would not have been included had it not won the MWC Tournament and claim.

A look at bracketmatrix.com shows that aside from San Deigo State, the remaining teams from the MWC were seeded an average of 2.5 seed lines below the consensus of hundreds of bracket submissions from people all over the country who project brackets. Personally, the seeding of Nevada, Utah State, and Boise were the ones I found most suprising, and unwarranted. It's unclear to me what the particular issue was the committee had except (and I paraphrase) 'Their best wins came against one another'. San Deigo State, which in my opinion was about the 3rd best team in that conference this season, was the only one to escape the downgrading from the committee. The only concievable reason I can imagine they didn't fall as well, when I compare their resume to the others in the conference, is that they made the NCAA Final last year. That of course should have no bearing this season or any other season.

How these teams fare this year will ultimately bear out if the committee got this right, but it has significant impacts on seeding beyond the MWC teams, who themselves will face better teams than proper seeding would have had them facing. Playing an underseeded MWC team also means their opponents are facing significantly better competition than they should be by 2-3 Seed lines as well. Finally, it also means 10-12 Teams had their seed lines improved by at least one seed line as a result of these 5 MWC Teams being moved below them on the seed list. This would suggest they get a less challenging opponent, and presumably so does their opponent, then proper seeding would have produced.

Which Leads us to Gonzaga and Saint Mary's who were OVERseeded

If the committee wants to try and sell the idea that the teams from the MWC didn't play and beat enough quality opponents out of their conference, fine. But to say it in the same year that both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga were 1 to 2 seedlines, respectively, over the consensus opinion muddies the water even more. Saint Mary's only win against another team in the field not in their conference was over Colorado State, who the committee thought so little of that they relegated them to Dayton for a play-in game. The only other wins they had against teams in the field, was Gonzaga, who they beat twice (including AT Gonzaga) and then wind up sharing a spot on the same seed line (5) with them.

Gonzaga for their part did have a nice late season win out of conference at Kentucky. Their only other win outside of the conference who also made the tournament was ... wait for it ... Yale (NET 81) who recieved a 13 Seed.

The West Coast Conference, in which Saint Mary's and Gonzaga participate is a 9 team league in which more than half have NET ratings are at 200 or above. By comparison, the MWC is an 11 Team league with 7 Teams with NET ratings 38 or below. Either the conference competition you play paired with who you beat outside of it matters, or it doesn't. The committee sent very mixed messages with significant OVER Seeding of Gonzaga and Saint Mary's while significantly UNDER seeding 5 teams from the Mountain West.

Michigan State in AND a 9 Seed!?

Ok, I did have Michigan State in the field ... the LAST team in the field ... but I wasn't happy about doing it. Between the idolization of Tom Izzo (even though its been 24 years since his last National Championship), the presistent rumors that he would retire after this year (though he has refuted them) and a 25 year streak of Michigan State making the tournament, I didn't see anyway the committee would leave them out. In doing these projectioins my goal is to predict what the committee will do, not what I think they should do. To be clear though, I feel that there were several more deserving teams to get in, and to get MSU's 9 seed. That they are included bothers me as a fan. That thier incredibly mediocre season was further rewarded with a 9 Seed is frankly outrageous. But who within the ranks of the NCAA will dare to call it out? No one, that's who. And so long as they don't, Michigan State will continue to get this treatment until Izzo does retire.

Lets take a look at what Michigan State's season looked like, by the numbers:

RECORD: 19-14 (worst in the field among At-Large Teams)
vs. Quad 1 & 2: 9-14 (Worst in the field among At-Large Teams)
vs. Quads 1 through 3: 15-14 (Tied with Mississippi State for Worst among At-Large teams)
vs. Teams in the field: 3-11 (Worst in the Field among At-Large Teams)

If they were going to be included, they should have been playing tomorrow or Wednesday in Dayton in a Play-In game. Instead they get a 9 seed, and a match up with Mississippi State (also over seeded, though not as egregiously).

As if gifting them with a bid and letting them avoid a play-in game wasn't enough, they went even further and matched them up with a team at least 2 seed lines worse than they deserved, and that many felt should also have had to face a play-in game. And by the way, if they do win they will play (barring a shocking upset) North Carolina next ... the 4th ranked #1 seed.

To be clear, I don't have anything against Tom Izzo, or Michigan State basketball for that matter. Izzo is great coach, and runs a clean program from everything I can tell, despite some of the grotesque issues we have seen in other programs at Michigan State. But gifting his team bids and unearned seeds is unseemly and diminishes the selection process.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

FINAL Bracket Projection - 4:25 PM, March 17th

Seed List Through Games Played on Saturday, 3/16/24

Notes:

An absolutely crazy day of basketball yesterday. If that was any indication of what we are likely to see in the NCAA Tournament, its going to be a very fun, and unpredicatable tournament.

This is the Seed listing prior to start of Sunday's 5 remaining Conference Championship Games

Ivy League - Brown vs. Yale. Brown would replace Yale on the Board and require reseeding of the IVY League Champ
Atlantic 10 - Duquesne vs. VCU. Duquesne would replace VCS on the Board and require reseeding of the A10 Champ
SEC - Florida vs. Auburn. - If Florida wins I expect them to move up to the 4 Seed like and bump Alabama back to the 5 Line. If Auburn wins I don't expect a change to the board
American Athletic - Temple vs. UAB. If Temple wins, they would replace UAB on the board and reseeding of the AAC champ
Big Ten - Wisconsin vs. Illinois - Sadly, for Wisconsin(If they win), I don't think the outcome of this game will affect seeding due to how close to the release of the Brackets by the Selection Committee is.

In all there were at least 4 or possible 5 Bid Thieves this year. I can't recall a number that high:

Oregon from the PAC 12
NC State from the ACC
Winner of Duquesne/VCU A10 Championship Game
Winner of Temple / UAB AAU Championship Game
New Mexico from the Mountain West (Depends on if you had them in already or not. I didn't.)

I will publish my final bracket shortly before the selection show airs at 5:00 PM Central. Praying for Yale, VCU, UAB and Florida to win. If today is anything like yesterday, they'll all lose.

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Seed List Through Games Played on Friday, 3/15/24

NOTES:

This is the Seed List as games kick off today. I will publish a Seed List again tomorrow in the morning and my final full Bracket Projection before the Selection Show at 5:00 PM Central Time Tommorrow.

THE BUBBLE: 11 Teams remain in contention for 7 Spots.

Currently In: Virginia, New Mexico, Texas, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Texas A&M
Currently Out: Providence, Pittsburgh, Saint John's, Seton Hall

POTENTIAL BID THIEVES (Will Shrink Bubble with a Win)

Oregon (Playing for PAC 12 Championship vs Colorado)
NC State (Playing for ACC Championship vs North Carolina)

Monday, March 11, 2024

Bracket Projections Through Games Played on Monday, 3/10/24

Friday, March 8, 2024

Viewing Guide for Saturday, March 9th

The next 15 days have traditionally been my absolute 15 days on the annual Sports Calendar. Starting tomorrow and running through Sunday, March 17^th, we will be treated to nearly wall to wall basketball, and seemingly each day with higher profile games, with higher profile stakes than the day before, until we finally arrive at 5:00 PM on the 17^th, when the final field of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is unveiled.

We’ll get a day on Monday the 18^th to collect our collective breath, fill our brackets, get a good night’s sleep, before the Tournament kicks off with Play-in Games from Dayton on March 19^th and 20^th.

And then, the four most glorious days in all of sports, the true ‘March Madness’ kicks off on Thursday. March 21^st.

I am going to try and get out a viewers guide for each day between now and Selection Sunday with what I feel are the most compelling, intriguing or consequentional games of the day, in chronological order.

Let's get started with tomorrow's games!

11:00 AM – Memphis at FAU (CBS)

There is a lot at stake for both teams, FAU is perched dangerously close to the bubble on my board at a 9 seed, and squarely on the bubble at the Bracket Matrix. Memphis sits on the outside of the field, 5 spots below the cut line. Simply put, an FAU win probably seals an At-Large Bid for the Owls and leaves Memphis with a Conference Tournament Championship in the American Association as their only way into the Big Dance. If Memphis wins, the Tigers could still have a chance, and FAU falls into the dangerous position of being a Bubble Team that could have a bid stolen.

1:00 PM – Texas A&M at Ole Miss (CBS)

Texas A&M is one of the most difficult teams to figure out what to do with. A month ago, after beating Tennessee by 26 the Aggies looked to be an at-large shoe-in. They then proceeded to lose 5 straight games, including to Vanderbilt (Net 214) on the road and Arkansas (Net 115) at home. During that stretch Tennessee also hammered Texas A&M by 34. The Aggies have 7 Quad 1 wins, including 2 against teams in the top 15 of Net ratings. That alone would seem to be enough to have them safely in the field. But the Aggies also have gone 7-4 outside Quads 1&2, include 2-4 against Quad 3, and have 3 Quad 3 losses at HOME, all worst among all teams under consideration for an at-large berth, which on its own would have relegated them to the at-large ash heap long before now. The Aggies need to get hot, and it starts with this game at Ole Miss (Net 79), which would provide their 12^th Quad 1 or 2 win. With that win and a couple wins in the SEC Tournament, likely also to be Quad 1 or 2 games, this team would be almost impossible to keep out of the dance with that many high-quality wins, and its why they remain on ‘Next 4 Out’ line.

2:00 PM – South Florida at Tulsa (Not Televised)

I know, I know! I said this was a viewers guide, and I included a game you won't be able to view. South Florida is just to interesting of a story not to find an excuse to talk about them. They currently own the nation’s longest win streak at 15 games, have an excellent regular season record of 23-5, and have already clinched a regular season AAU title with a current record of 16-1 in conference, beating out both FAU and Memphis who were discussed earlier. South Florida will have the #1 Seed in the AAU Conference Tournament but may not be the favorite to win it. They are also ranked 24th in the country in the AP Poll. Yet, very few people feel they will get in if they fail to win their conference Tournament. I'm actually among them. More on that another time. However, their current standing makes them one of my favorite types of team this time of year ... a prime candidate to steal a bid from an At-Large Team on the bubble if they do go on to win their conference tournament, possibly from their very own tournament. I may not think they have the resume' for an at-large bid, but I am definetely rooting for them to win their tournament. Having said all that, I do think a win tomorrow and a couple of key wins in a deep tournament run that falls short to FAU in the Championship game likely will put them in consideration for an At-Large.

3:00 PM – Kansas at Houston (ESPN) and Kentucky at Tennessee (CBS)

Impossible for me to choose one or the other to focus on. These are two of the three best games on the schedule tomorrow. All sorts of #1 Seed implications here as I wrote about yesterday. I need to figure out how to get my DirecTV PIP functioning again by the time these games tip off!

5:30 PM – North Carolina at Duke (ESPN)

Do yourself a favor and just plan on ordering in tomorrow because as soon as the 3:00 games end, North Carolina and Duke will square off. This arguably the most compelling rivalry in all of College Basketball, and is usually the case, the stakes are very high. North Carolina can win the ACC Regular Season title outright with a win, secure the #1 Seed in the ACC Tournament, and notch a huge win in the quest for a #1 Seed, particularly if Tennessee falters. Duke, with a win, would split the season series with the Tarheels, earn a share of the ACC Regular Season Title and possibly a shot at the ACC Tournament #1 Seed. It would do wonders for improving seed position in the At-Large Field.

7:00 PM – Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Championship – Teams TBD (ESPN2)

The first ticket to the big dance will be officially punched for the winner of this game. The participants will be determined this evening. Western Illinois (4 Seed) squares off against Little Rock (1 Seed) at 7:00 PM in the first Semi-Final, and the other will feature Morehead State (3 Seed) playing UT-Martin at 9:30 PM.

7:30 PM – New Mexico at Utah State (CBS Sports Net)

This will be my last game tomorrow before falling into a slumber to rest up for another spectacular day of games on Sunday. Earlier this week Utah State clinched a shar of the Mountain West Regular Season title with a win over San Jose State. New Mexico on the other hand is another enigma sitting squarely on the bubble, with most having them as one of the very last, if not last team, above the cut line. I frankly have them in the ‘Next Four Out’, and an outlier from the majority at the Bracket Matrix. New Mexico currently possesses a net of 32. No team with a NET that high has failed to make the tournament. But a closer look at their resume’ reveals remarkable weakness for a team with that high of a Net ranking. They are just 2-6 against Quad 1 teams, and 1-4 against Quad1a teams, with only 1 win away from their home floor against teams with a net below 163. They remained in the field for me until they dropped a Quad 4 game at home against Air Force (Net 270) back on February 24^th. A win here would be a signature 1a road win and could possibly cement them into the At-Large field. I personally need to see more before I’m prepared to move them back into the field. A loss though may very well be what gets them moved out of the field with other bracketologists, and most importantly, the committee, barring a deep run in the Mountain West Tournament.

UPDATED SEED LIST (Through Games Played on 03/07)

As we close in on Selection Sunday I will be posting updated seed lists between full bracket updates, the next should come on Monday after all weekend games have completed and a more in depth data scrub is performed.

Below is my current Seed List based on games completed through Thursday night (03/07).

Thursday, March 7, 2024

The Battle for the 4th #1 Seed:

Selection Sunday is now just 9 days away, and with the the regular season wrapping up for the major conferences and some conference tournaments underway, we are about to enter a pretty dynamic period in the run up to March 17th.

I hope to publish a new seed list tomorrow, and full Bracket Projection on Monday as we head into the last week.

Today, I thought I would start off with my thoughts on a popular discussion topic in the last 10 days or so before the field is annouced ... 'Who will get the #1 Seeds?'

#1 Seed Locks:

I feel confident saying that 3 of the 4 number 1 seeds are all but sown up now.

Purdue - #1 Over all
UConn
Houston

All three of these teams have had Quad 1 Road wins. Purdue may very well have sewn up the #1 overall seed with a top 15 Net road win over Illinois. Similarly, UConn had one over Marquette, allowing them to leap frog Houston to the second #1 Seed. Houston also won on the road over UCF, ranked 65 in the net, but not considered to be a team in consideration for an At-Large Bid, opening the door for UConn to slip past them. The difference between UConn and Houston is very small, and it will be interesting to see which emerges as the higher number one seed by Selection Sunday. It's possible either could also pass Purdue for the #1 overall, but would probably require Purdue lose its regular season finale, and bow out of its first game in the Big Ten Conference tournament to open a door for either to catch them.

The fight for the final #1 seed

I think is going to be VERY interesting to watch this battle unfold. I believe there are 7 teams in contention for the final #1 Seed. Here is how I rank them today with a comment or two on what I believe thier chances are to secure it.

Tennessee - Picked up a big win at South Carolina this week to move up to the #1 Seed Line ahead of Arizona who hasn't played yet this week. They finish the regular season with a huge home game against Kentucky. Win that, and at least one game in the SEC Tournament, and they will be very difficult to dislodge as the 4th #1 Seed. I think they have the clear inside track to a #1 Seed, but its still a very challenging track to navigate.
Arizona - Currently my top 2 Seed after falling off the 1 Seed line where they have been for 3 weeks, for me, now. Arizona's path back to the #1 Seed line is tricky, and perhaps the most difficult of anyone vying for the spot. They are not likely to play another Quad 1 Game unless they make it to the PAC 12 Championship and either Washington State or Utah is waiting there for them. They will likely not only need to win out, but they will also need to hope for Tennessee, as well as several teams currently behind them, to flame out early in the their conference tournaments. I suspect even with a deep run ending short of a PAC12 Title, they are likely to get passed by which ever of the teams behind them makes deep runs and wins or plays in their Conference Tournament Championship game.
North Carolina - The strength of their resume is their road record agains Quad 1 & 2 teams (They are a very strong 7-2 in true road games, in a year ranked road teams are under .500 nationally). They get another great opportunity for one of they valuable wins when they close out the regular season at Duke. And, off course, every Conference Tournament win they secure will be a Nuetral Court Quad 1 or 2 game who also carry a lot of weight. This could offset the fact that at present, they have fewer Quad 1 wins and total Quad 1 and 2 wins then any other team they are currently competing with for the final #1 Seed. Beat Duke, and then get at least 1 Win in the quarter finals of the ACC tournament and they likely pass Arizona regardless of what they do. The rest will depend on what Tennessee does. I like the Tarheels to make a deep ACC Tournament run, and expect them to be in the discussion right up to Selection Sunday.
Iowa State - They finish the regular season with a Quad 1 Road Game, and then will enter the Big 12 Conference Tournament where any win they get is likely to be a Quad 1 Win. They probably will need to get at least to the Championship game and lose to (only) Houston, to have any chance. Of course they will need help from teams ahead of them, in the form of early Conference tournament losses, to have any shot. One potential factor holding them back may be their 300+ ranked Non-Conference Strength of Schedule. Even if all this falls into place, the committee may still be reluctant to reward them with a #1 Seed with such a weak schedule out of conference.
Baylor - The difference between Iowa State and Baylor is almost indistguishable, so I think you can say Baylor has the exact same path to a #1 as Iowa State. Whay may ultimately give Baylor a better chance than the Cyclones is Baylor's #75 (and therefore much more challenging) Non-Conference Strength of Schedule. Their 10-2 Non-Conference Record looks much more impressive than Iowa State's 11-2 record when you look at who they each played. While I have them behind Iowa State at present based on current body of work, I actually think they have a better shot at landing the #1 Seed then their conference counterpart. That they could play each other in the Big 12 tournament adds some additional intrigue to sorting these two teams out.
Marquette - I keep them here only because they will get multiple Quad 1a win opportunities, including potentially with UConn, over the next 9 days. Marquette has played one of the most difficult schedules in the country, and if they were to win out, their resume would stack up very favorably to their competition for the final #1 Seed. Marquette currently has 7 Quad 1 losses, but 3 of them have come to teams who are locks for a #1 Seed, which mitigates the number of Quad 1 losses the committee will have to consider. Only a handful of teams in the country have more than 1 such loss. It's a long shot ... possibly the longest of the 7 Teams on my list vying for the final #1 Seed ... but if they run the table to a Big East title and beat UConn along they way, they will most certainly be in the conversation.
Kansas - Currently sits as the second #3 Seed on my list, but they have a few things going for them that no one else ahead of them, outside of perhaps Tennessee, does. They currently have 4 wins against top 15 Net teams. OnlyPurdue has more in the entire field, and it matches the total Tennessee has. They have 6 Quad 1a wins ... only Purdue and UConn have more in the field, and matches the total of, again, Tennessee. Their final regular season game is on the road at Net #1 Houston, and they are in the unquie position of potentially being able to win head to head against 2 of the teams currently ahead of them in the Big 12 tournament (Iowa State and Baylor). Throw in that they could also get another shot at Houston and you see how if they catch fire and win out, they could find themselves on the 1 Seed line.

I don't recall this much competition for the final #1 seed this late in the season before, and games this weekend could go aways to whittling down the list. However, its possible all 7 could still be in contention for it heading into conference tournament play. If I was forced to wager on who would get it, I'd put my money on Tennessee. However if the Vols stumble, my next choice would likely be North Carolina followed by Baylor.

Monday, March 4, 2024

Bracket Projections Through Games Played on Monday, 3/3/24

Notes:

Teams moved a Seed line to meet NCAA Bracketing Principles

BYU - UP from a 6 Seed to a 5 Seed
COLORADO STATE - UP from an 8 Seed to a 7 Seed
SETON HALL - UP froma 10 Seed to a 9 Seed
INDIANA STATE - UP from an 11 Seed to a 10 Seed
CLEMSON - DOWN from a 5 Seed to a 6 Seed
TEXAS TECH - DOWN from a 7 Seed to an 8 Seed
TCU - DOWN from a 9 Seed to a 10 Seed
TEXAS - DOWN From a 10 Seed to an 11 Seed

NEW TEAMS IN THIS WEEK's BRACKET

Gonzaga - At Large
Villanova - At Large
Princeton - New Conference Leader
Quinnipiac - New Conference Leader

AT LARGE TEAMS OUT FROM LAST WEEK

New Mexico
Wake Forest

BIGGEST MOVERS:

Gonzaga (UP) - A great way to move quickly up the bubble ranks is to win to Net 1 Road games in the same way week. Gonzaga did just that by beating San Francisco and Saint Mary's to close the regular season. They went from a 'Next Four Out' to a 9 Seed thanks to a LOT of other bubble teams sliding last week.
Wisconsin (DOWN)- A great way to lose multiple seed lines in the same week is to lose a home game and road game to a 100+ Net team. Wisconsin did just that by losing at Indiana and then coming home and losing to Illinois Saturday. They did this at the same time as teams below them were racking up big Quad 1 wins. The slumping Badgers fell 3 Seeds lines (From a 4 to a Seven).
Boise State and Nevada - UP 2 Seed Lines