Thursday, March 7, 2019

Key Games (3/7)

 First a few comments on last night's action.  Wednesday saw a number of teams, on the bubble and elsewhere in the projected field, play some pretty awful basketball with some pretty awful results.  
  • Georgetown, who popped in the to the field for me over the weekend, lost by double digits at DePaul.  Georgetown is now out of the field again on my unpublished list, and TCU, despite a loss of their own this week, has moved back in.   I guess with this bubble, there is such a thing as a good loss, or perhaps better put, less awful loss.  
  • Ohio State, with a chance to lock up an at-large bid with a win, instead was blown out by Northwestern, fall to 8-11 in Big Ten league play and will now face Wisconsin in Columbus Sunday in the league regular season finale.  Ohio State could play themselves out of it this weekend before Kaleb Wesson, currently suspended, returns.
  • NC State was embarrassed at home by Georgia Tech last night.  As a team with one of THE Non Conference Strength's of schedule in all of college basketball (353 out of 353) , and just a 2-8 Quad 1 record (including 0-8 against the 1a Tier), the closer they get to the cut line, the more they have to worry.  Last night's loss was a turbo boost in that direction.  A loss Saturday at Boston College could be fatal for a team that had been managing to hover just out of the danger zone for weeks.
  • Marquette, just a week hand a half ago, held a 1.5 game lead over Villanova for the lead in the Big East, heading into a game with the Wildcats.  The Golden Eagles lost that game, and the other two since, and they have been ugly.  Saturday was a 22 turn-over laden home loss to Creighton.  Last night Seton Hall went on an 18-0 run to end the game and send Marquette reeling to their 3rd straight loss.  Marquette was thinking about a path to a #2 seed.  Now they are in real danger of falling out of a spot among the top 16 overall seeds.  As for the Pirates of Seton Hall ... they were literally the only team on the bubble last night who won a ball game ... and they were in desperate need of it.
Now on to tonight's top games:

Cincinnati at UCF - 6:00 PM on ESPN 2

The game of the night in College Basketball.  UCF secured what appears to be a tournament bid sealing win when they shocked Houston, in Houston, on Saturday.  Now they get to come home to play a 25-4 Cincinnati team that finds itself tied with Houston for the Conference lead.  Cincinnati is missing a Quad 1a Win from it'r resume and gets a shot at one here, as well as a shot at staying in contention for a #1 seed in the American Conference Tournament.  UCF, who just 5 days ago was hovering at the cut line to make the tournament suddenly finds itself talking about improving their potential seed instead.

Iowa at Wisconsin - 6:00 PM on ESPN

A great rivalry game from the Big Ten.  Wisconsin, who has been hanging around the line between being a 4 and 5 seed, was leapfrogged on my board this by Florida State's who knocked off Virginia Tech earlier in the week.  The Badgers could potentially grab the spot back with a win over 41st NET ranked Iowa.  More importantly perhaps, they could get closer to securing a 4th place finish in the conference and the double bye that comes with it in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.  The Hawkeyes were sailing up the rankings just a week ago.  Then they went to Ohio State, got blown out by 20, saw their Head Coach Fran McCafferey get suspended for verbally attacking a ref after a game and then followed that up with an inexcusable home loss to Rutgers.  They now have to make a difficult trip to the Kohl Center, again without McCafferey on the sidelines.  These teams always get after each other, regardless of stakes.  Tonight should be a bruiser.  Wisconsin won the first meeting at Iowa City back in December.

 Indiana at Illinois - 7:00 PM on FS1

As difficult as this is to believe, the Indiana Hoosiers are still alive for an At-Large bid after being left for dead by virtually everyone back on February 22nd following their 5th straight loss, and OT heart-breaker to Iowa.  The sad reality of this year's bubble is that no one just above, or below the cut line can seem to win a game when they need it (UCF and the aforementioned Pirates of Seton Hall the notable exceptions).  It leaves the door open for a team like Indiana who bounced back with wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin last week.   Adding to the resume' they started to rebuild last week are wins earlier in the season at Michigan State,and impressive Non-Conference wins over Marquette and Louisville.  They finish the season  with this game at Illinois and at home versus Rutgers on Saturday, which on paper at least, look like very winnable games for the suddenly relevant again Hoosiers.    But right now they sit at 6-12 in the Big Ten and are just 2-14 in Road/Neutral Quad 1 & 2 games, which if not improved could outweigh any of the good this team has done on their home floor this year.   This game presents a great opportunity for Indiana to improve both.  Failure to do so, almost certainly relegates Indiana back to the Bubble graveyard.


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