Saturday, March 2, 2019

Saturday's Key Games (3/2)

A number of key games are on tap as we move into March.  Here are a few that I will be paying close attention to:

Kentucky at Tennessee - 1:00 PM on CBS

A spot on the #1 Seed line, and at least a share of the SEC lead is at stake in Knoxville today.  Many projections moved Tennessee down to a #2 Seed after Kentucky throttled the Vols in Lexington a couple weeks ago, and then dropped another road game at LSU a week later.  I chose to keep Tennessee on 1 seed line for the time being knowing this game was coming up, and almost certainly would determine who would get the final #1 seed going into the last week of the regular season.  Tennessee and Kentucky both fought through lackluster performances this past week with the game looming large on the Schedule in front of them.  Tennessee won at Ole Miss by 2 snapping a game road losing streak.  Kentucky battled back from a double digit deficit to win by 4 at home against Arkansas.

Nevada at Utah State - 7:30 PM on CBS Sports Network

Nevada and Utah State will play the game of the year in the Mountain West conference tonight in Logan, Utah with first place in the conference on the line.  The stakes could not be bigger for the Aggies of Utah State, who currently trail the Wolfpack by a half game.  More importantly, for Utah State, they sit as squarely on the bubble cut line in virtually every field projection out there.  The Aggies have the confounding profile that so many mid-major teams hoping to build a resume' for At-Large consideration, including a stellar 22-6 Division 1 record, a solid 9-3 Non-Conference record against one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country (ranked 21st) and a contender for their league title.  What is missing is signature win against a top tier opponent.  Their best win to date is a 17 point blow out win over Saint Mary's back in November.  As of right now, Saint Mary's isn't a long shot for the bubble.  Nevada, with a NET ranking of 19  gives them a chance to significantly improve their profile, get a critical second Quad 1 win, and position themselves for a #1 seed in the Mountain West conference tournament.  It will not be an easy task ... Nevada destroyed the Aggies in Reno by 23, while holding them to just 49 in their first meeting of the season.

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's - 9:00 PM on ESPN

Gonzaga has already wrapped up the West Coast Conference Regular season title, and have been coasting undefeated through conference play since winning 13 of 15 in the Non-Conference portion of their schedule.  This game represents the biggest test on the regular season conference schedule, and could represent the last threat to Gonzaga securing a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  St. Mary's back is against the wall if they want to have any chance of being considered for an At-Large bid.  They remain a team lurking in the weeds for consideration.   Lacking any win bigger win than a road win at New Mexico State back in November, the only path to a an NCAA Tournament bid outside of winning the Conference Tournament is to knock of Gonzaga tonight.  The Zags manhandled the Gaels 94-46 in their first meeting.  The Zags have not been in a contested game since losing to North Carolina, in Chapel Hill, way back on December 15th.  They at 19-0 since then winning by a staggering average of 31 points per game.  Could Gaels benefit from an over confident Gonzaga team who just biding time until they start playing games that truly matter again?

Other Intriguing Games:
  • LSU at Alabama - 11:00 AM on ESPN
  • Penn State at Wisconsin - Noon on the Big Ten Network
  • Ohio State at Purdue - 1:00 PM on ESPN
  • Houston at UCF - 3:00 PM on ESPN
  • Mississippi State at Auburn - 3:00 PM on ESPNU
  • TCU at Texas Tech - 3:00 PM on ESPN2
  • Seton Hall at Georgetown - 5:30 PM on the CBS Sports Network

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