Syracuse at Clemson - 11:00 AM
Clemson is one of 3 teams in the early games today playing for their tournament lives. The Tigers are currently sitting as the first team below the cut line entering play today. The biggest wart on the Tiger's resume' is their 1-9 record in Quad 1 games. A loss to Syracuse at home would make worse what is already the worst Quad 1 Record among the teams on the bubble. Clemson is buoyed by their top 40 NET ranking but at some point this team is going to have to beat someone for that to matter. This could be Clemson's last chance to do it.
TCU at Texas - 11:00 AM on ESPN2
If you want an idea of just how ugly this year's bubble is look no further than this match-up. TCU enters play as the last team in. The Horned Frogs have lost 3 in a row and 6 of their last seven. They were below the cut line starting the week and moved in despite losing earlier in the week. They are just 2-8 against Quad 1 teams, are just 6-11 in conference games this season, and are an abysmal 3-12 in Quad 1-2 Road/Neutral games ... and yet are in the field. Now consider this. Their opponent, Texas, is just 16-14 overall on the season, are also below .500 in conference play, and despite that, could just about cinch an At-Large bid. A loss by TCU in this one would be fatal to their at-large hopes. The selection committee would have to select them with a league record of 6-12. I see no way that happens, I don't care who they might beat in the Big 12 Tournament. On the other side of this games ledger, a loss by Texas at home might finally be enough to put Texas' at-large bid in real peril. Outside of to the Atlantic Sun conference championship later in the day, no game may have more riding on it than this one.
Florida at Kentucky - 1:00 PM on CBS
Florida is another team fighting for it's at-large lives today. The Gators appeared to have turned a corner and were headed to locking down an At-Large bid after winning 5 straight that included road wins at Alabama and LSU. Then the Gators were then by Georgia, and lost a nail biter earlier this week to LSU, both on their home floor. Now they have to go on the road to take on a Kentucky team that is in the discussion for a #1 seed. To stay in that discussion, this appears to be a must win. As bad as the bubble is below them, its possible Florida could lose this one and stay above the line. That would put some enormous pressure on them going into the SEC Tournament to win at least 1 game, if not 2 to stay in the discussion. A win today though, would almost certainly lock down the at-large bid they seemed poised to lock up over a week ago.
Duke at North Carolina - 5:00 PM on ESPN
As they always do, the Blue Devils and Tar Heels will close out the ACC regular season schedule. This is always must watch basketball. Six teams appear to be in the hunt for the four #1 seeds. These are two of them. Duke has a very tenuous grip on the #1 overall and have been protected by a slowly eroding levee of two convincing wins over Virginia. But the Blue Devils have lost to Gonzaga (also a #1 seed candidate) and North Carolina earlier in the season. Another loss to North Carolina and that levee crumbles, sending Duke tumbling from my #1 Overall to the #2 seed line heading into ACC Tournament play. The Zion Williamson watch continues ... there is apparently a chance he may play in this one ... though the conventional wisdom seems to be that he won't. North Carolina dominated the paint without him on the floor for the final 39 minutes of the UNC's blow out win in Durham.
Murray State vs. Belmont - Ohio Valley Conference Championship - 7:00 PM on ESPN 2
The first official bid in the NCAA Tournament will be handed out tonight to the winner of the OVC Tournament Champion. There are also potential bubble ramifications depending on the outcome. These two teams have been the class of their league all season, though a tough Jacksonville State team gave the Racers of Murray State a scare in their semi-final tilt last night. The Bruins of Belmont won the only regular season match-up at Murray State by 13. This one is played on a Neutral Floor in Evansville, IN. The Bruins are riding a 15 game winning streak headed into this game, and are the heavy favorite to win the automatic bid of the OVC. Murray State is on the fringe of the bubble, looking in, but a loss would kill any chance of getting to the dance this year. But what if they were to win? Well, it would likely put Belmont squarely in the middle of some very interesting debate about their merits as an At-Large candidate, as they most certainly would find themselves either right above or below the cut line. We'll have more time to discuss that scenario should the Racers find a way to pull the upset tonight. If that happens, we might just have our first bid thief of the 2019 Tournament.
Michigan at Michigan State - 7:00 PM on ESPN
Following the Duke/UNC tilt, if you keep your set tuned to ESPN you'll get treated to yet another monster game with huge implications on the top of the rankings and for regular season conference titles. Heading into action this weekend, these two teams find themselves tied for the Big Ten lead with Purdue, who plays at Northwestern earlier in the day. This game will determine the number one overall seed in the Big Ten Tournament next week, and solidify one of these team, at least for the time being, as a solid #2 seed, and likely banish the other to the 3 Seed line. The banged up Spartans went into Ann Arbor back on the 24th of February and rode a monster 27 point, 8 assist effort from Cassius Winston on route to a 77-70 upset of the Wolverines. Michigan will look to return the favor at East Lansing today. Both teams currently are holding out hope for a 1 seed. Whoever loses will likely be out of that discussion regardless of what happens in the Big Ten Tournament next week.
Houston at Cinncinati - Sunday, 11:00 AM on CBS
Cincinnati could claim a share of the AAC regular season championship if they can upset Houston on Sunday. The Bearcats, have had a wonderful season, currently sitting at 25-5 overall, 14-3 in league play, and possessing a Quad 1 record above .500 (4-3) heading into the regular season finale. The hole in their seeding resume' rests in the fact that they are 0-3 in Quad 1a games, and haven't beaten a team in the NET top 25 all season. Houston was shocked at home last week, ending any discussion about whether a #1 seed was in play for the then 1 loss Cougars. It will be interesting to see how Houston responds in this huge road game as they ramp up for post season play.
Liberty at Lipscomb - Sunday, 2:00 PM on ESPN - Atlantic Sun Conference Champtionship
A very similar situation to the OVC Championship game sets up in the A-Sun Championship. A Lipscomb win will eliminate Liberty from the discussion for a bid in the Tournament. Should they win though, another very interesting discussion will undoubtedly ensue around Lipscomb's merits as an At-Large candidate. While I have them ranked ahead of 2 of my final four at-large teams, I tend to think that Lipscomb is less likely than Belmont to get serious consideration as an At-Large. This year though, as soft as the bubble is, the committee just might be start hunting for mid-major alternatives to Power Conference teams barely over .500 on the season, 4 games below .500 in league play, without a Quad 1a win to their credit, or sporting a NC-SOS at or above 200. If they do, Lipscomb will be high on that list.
Wisconsin at Ohio State - Sunday, 3:30 PM on CBS
Ohio State, who has been on the verge of locking up an at-large bid for what seems like weeks now, suddenly finds itself on the precipice of very dangerous cliff. They have lost 2 straight games, by a combined 53 points, including an particularly ugly 18 point loss to Northwestern. A loss would drop the Buckeyes to 8-12 in the Big Ten headed into conference tournament play. The Buckeyes are just one more example of how incredibly soft this bubble is, as they could lose this game and be one of perhaps as many as 4 teams that get an at-large bid with more than 11 regular season league losses. Wisconsin played one of it's most complete games Thursday in blowing out Iowa by 20 and holding them over 30 points below their season average. The Badgers could secure a double bye in the Big Tournament with a win, and further enhance their seeding stock for Selection Sunday, without regard to conference tournament performance. But the biggest motivator might very well be avenging what, at least in my eyes, maybe the most embarrassing program loss in years. The last time these two teams met, on December 2nd 2017, Ohio State blasted Bucky by 25, marking the worst Badger loss ever at the Kohl Center. The Badgers have exercised a lot of demons from the disappointing 2017-18 campaign. This would be the last, and perhaps most haunting of them all, to purge.
Other Conference Championship Games
- Big South: Gardner-Webb at Radford - 12:00 PM on ESPN
- Missouri Valley: Winner of Loyola-Chicago/Bradley vs. Winner of Drake/Northern Iowa - 1:05 PM on CBS
Other League Games of Interest
- Tennessee at Auburn - Saturday 11:00 AM on ESPN
- Villanova at Seton Hall - Saturday 11:00 AM on FOX
- Texas Tech at Iowa State - Saturday 1:00 PM on ESPNews
- NC State at Boston College - Saturday 1:00 PM on ACC Network
- Georgetown at Marquette - Saturday 1:30 PM on FOX
- Louisville at Virginia - Saturday 3:00 PM on ESPN
- UCF at Temple - Saturday 3:00 PM on ESPN2
- Oklahoma at Kansas State - Saturday 5:00 PM on ESPN2
- Rutgers at Indiana - Sunday, 11:00 AM on Big Ten Network
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