Wednesday, March 6, 2019

News from the Bubble (Wednesday 3/6)

Tuesday night saw some important games involving bubble teams, and a three of them scored huge victories.

Auburn won their 3rd straight game last night with a 66-60 win at Alabama last night .  The win allowed the Tigers to notch their 2nd Quad 1 win in that 3 game span and locked them in to an At-Large bid.  The loss for Alabama puts the 'Tide in a precarious position heading into their regular season finale at Arkansas on Saturday.  They have now lost 2 straight, 5 of their last 7, and likely into the 'Last 4 In grouping'.  Alabama still has some strong metrics that will stack up well against teams currently below them in the bubble, but a loss Saturday to the Razorbacks and a 1st round loss in the SEC would erode much of the good on the resume'.  At this point 'Bama remains in the field for me, but has become a prime candidate regardless of the outcome of Saturday's game to have a bid stolen from them should multiple bid thieves start to emerge from Conference tournaments over the next 10 games.

Minnesota, like Auburn, did themselves a huge favor by knocking off Big Ten leaders Purdue at home last night.  The Gophers notched their 2nd Quad 1A victory in the win, and in the process leap frogged a couple of teams previously ahead of them on the bubble, including the aforementioned Crimson Tide of Alabama, as well as the idle Temple Owls.  I don't think Minnesota's work to lock up an At-Large bid is complete just yet, but they're oh so close to doing so.   The Gophers travel to Maryland to take on the Terapins Friday night.  A win would complete the work they need to do to get in, but a loss would not be fatal.

Finally, a team that has been fascinating to follow since I began tracking in early February are the Sooners of Oklahoma.  They secured an enormous victory at home last night in a double digit win over Kansas.  On the night of February 11th, the Sooners were licking their wounds after a home loss to Baylor.  It was, at the time, the Sooners 5th straight loss and 7th in their 9 previous games.  They were 4-9 in the Big 12 and many were on the verge of writing them off.  Since that time, Oklahoma has won 4 of 5 and notched impressive victories over Kansas, Texas and TCU in the process.  The Sooners likely closed the deal on securing an At-Large bid with last night's victory, giving them some much needed breathing room headed into their season finale Saturday at Big 12 Leader Kansas State.  It has been an impressive come back for a team who looked like their bubble may have popped back on February 11th.


Wednesday Night Bubble Games:

  • LSU at Florida - Florida closes the season with two monster games with LSU and at Kentucky.  A win in either likley would get Florida in.
  • Marquette at Seton Hall - Seton Hall has been reeling, having lost 3 straight.  I have them as a 9 seed currently, but most have them as a last 4 team in, or out of the field.  A fourth straight loss, especially being at home, could be fatal to the Pirates.
  • Georgetown at DePaul -  At  Bracket Matrix  the Only 5 projections out of 119 being tracked have Georgetown in the field, and mine is one of them.  I held my nose doing it.  In the end, even if I'm right that they are a Tournament team today, any loss is probably fatal for their At-Large chances ... assuming they have any to start with.


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