Saturday, March 16, 2019

Saturday AM Seed List and Bubble Math

Below is my current seed list and bubble math.  First a few notes:

  • Rhode Island, the 8 seed in the American Conference Tournament upset #1 Seed VCU.  VCU was a lock before play began.  With VCU out of the Conference Tournament, the AAC will have another bid with their conference winner, thus VCU losing shrunk the bubble by one line.
  • Nevada, #1 seed in the Mountain West was also upset yesterday.  San Diego State took out the Wolfpack and will play Utah State for the MWC Championship.  I moved Utah State to a lock after their win over Fresno Stat.  If I'm correct, SD State would steal a bid with a win
  • Oregon advanced to the PAC12 Championship with a win over Arizona State in the Semi-Finals.  Oregon will play Washington for the Championship, and may in the process steal a bid as well.  I have Arizona State and Washington as locks ... not everyone does.
  • I still have Virginia as the #1 overall seed despite their loss to Florida State yesterday, but not sure it will stand in the final scrub I do before selections are announced.  Duke probably sowed up a #1 finally beating UNC with Williamson on the court.  There appear to me to be 7 teams in contention for #1 Seeds.  Still pretty fluid on the top 3 seed lines.
  • I will be doing a full detailed scrub of the field after today's action and will produce a final seed list before tomorrow's selection show, so this could change. Some of my Quad and Net data is a bit stale.
 The Seed List

My Quick Bid Math


  • 60 of 68 Bids are now locked
    • 12 Bids have been awarded to teams that have already won a Conference Tournament
    • 11 Teams will be awarded the only bid their conference will get when their Tournament concluded
    • 37 Teams have locked up At-Large Bids (Though 9 could still be awarded an auto-bid if they win their conference tournament
  • 8 At-Large Bids Remain with 15 Teams in Contention for remaining 8 slots. Each Bid Thief will reduce the number of At-Large spots available by 1.
  • Conferences that could still produce bid Thieves:
    • MAC - If Buffalo loses to Bowling Green in Championship Game
    • MWC - If Utah State loses to San Diego State in Championship Game (Assumes Utah  State is a lock)
    • PAC12 - If Washington loses to Oregon in in Championship Game (Assumes Arizona State is a lock)
    • AMERICAN - If Memphis or Wichita State win Tournament. (Assumes Temple is in, and isn't squeezed out by other bid thieves)



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