58 of the 68 Available Bids have been locked down, either through the awarding of automatic bids to teams that have already won their conference tournament, teams that will win the only bid their conference will get via the Auto-Bid to their conference tournament champion, or by teams who have already done enough to be awarded an at-large bid if they don't win their conference tournament.
Here is the Breakdown of the locks, as I see them:
Auto Bids Awarded (12)
Single Bid Conferences with Tournament Still Running (10)
American East
Big Sky
Big West
Conference USA
Ivy
Mid-Eastern Atlantic (MEAC)
Sun Belt
Southland
Southwest Athletic (SWAC)
Western Athletic
Teams who have locked up at least an At-Large Bid (36)
Note: Teams in Bold are currently the highest remaining seed in their conference tournament, which is still running
BUBBLE MATH
With 58 spots locked, 10 bids remain in play which sets the maximum size of the bubble
* It should be noted that the NCAA Selection Chair indicated that going into play yesterday, that actually 28 of the 38 At-Large bids had already been determined by the selection committee. I show more remaining because obviously, I don't who they have already selected.
Teams in Consideration for final 10 At-Large Bids (25 Bubble Teams)
Still playing (12) - All of these teams could also secure one of the remaining automatic bids by winning their conference tournament
Done Playing (13) - All of these teams have been eliminated from their respective conference tournaments and are at the mercy of those teams still playing.
Conference Tournaments that Could Still Produce Bid Thieves
Atlantic 10 (A10) - VCU is a lock. No other team aside from Davidson, and extreme longshot for an At-Large bid remains in consideration. If VCU loses, the A10 Tournament Champ will steal a bid
Mid-American (MAC) - Buffalo is a lock. They are heavy favorites to win the Conference Tournament, and the only other team that was on the fringe of the bubble (Toledo) was eliminated yesterday. As with VCU in the A10, a Buffalo loss will produce a bid stealing MAC Champ.
Mountain West (MWC) - The MWC conference has one lock (Nevada) and one near lock (Utah State). Should anyone besides these two teams with the MWC Tourney, it is likely to produce a bid thief. If Utah State doesn't make the Championship game though, I think they will be sweating it come the Selection Show on Sunday.
PAC 12 - I have Washington and Arizona State as locks. Not everyone is sold on Arizona State though. If I'm right, and neither win the tournament, I think the PAC 12 will produce a 3rd bid and steal a spot from the open bubble slots. I actually like Oregon, who plays Arizona State today in a fascinating game, to win the PAC12.
American Athletic (AAC) - Were entering 'far-fetched' territory here, but one could envision a scenario where the AAC produces a thief. Houston, Cincinnati and UCF are locks on my board. Temple is in the field on my board, but dangerously close to the cut line. However, if things break right and either Memphis (a long shot for an at-large) and Wichita State are still alive in the AAC Tourney. If everything breaks just right, and Wichita State were to wind up facing and beating Temple in the Championship game, its possible Temple could hold on for an at-large. This scenario could produce a 5th bid for the American.
Big Ten (B10) - This is the most far-fetched scenario of all, so much so that it seems to be a waste to spend time discussing it, but it is fascinating to consider. The B10 has locks on my board with Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa and Minnesota. Six of those 7 teams are among the 8 remaining in the tournament Quarterfinals. Ohio State, like Temple in the AAC, is near the cut line and could be a victim of thieves from other conferences, or being surpassed by teams below them continuing to win. However, they play Michigan State today and might very well lock down a bid with a win, giving the B10 8 locked bids. The scenario for a 9th rests with Nebraska. They are a long shot for a bubble bid as well (Though a win over Wisconsin and Michigan to get the Championship game will make them a hot bubble topic heading into play Sunday). Should Ohio State win today, and Nebraska go on to win the tournament, I think the Big 10 winds up with 9 bids, It's hard to envision it happening. Nebraska, playing in this tournament with only 7 scholarship players, would have to win 5 games in 5 days for that to happen. That path would include Maryland (who they beat yesterday), Wisconsin, Michigan or Iowa, and likely Michigan State or Purdue. It would be miraculous if they did it.
Final Thoughts
I suspect we'll see two bid thieves emerge from the conference tournaments listed above. Assuming that is the case the bubble shrinks from 10 spots to 8 for the 25 teams listed as being on the bubble.
Right now my "Last 4 In" are Alabama, Ohio State, TCU and Florida. All but TCU have games today leaving TCU as most vulnerable, either to being squeezed out by a bid thief, or being run down from behind by a team not in the field that is still alive. They have no control of their own destiny
My 'First Four Out' are Texas, Georgetown, NC State and Indiana. All four of these teams are done playing, and if I'm correct, need to hope for multiple teams near the cut line above them to lose, no bid thieves to emerge, and the bubble teams below still playing to lose today.
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