Hunting for Bid Thieves

Those of us wanting to see the drek hanging around the current bubble cut line trimmed from consideration for an at-large came into Championship week praying for as many bid thieves from Mid-Major conferences (and a Power 5 performing like a Mid-Major) to emerge as possible.  Converesly, fans of NC State, Clemson, TCU, Indiana, Texas, Ohio State, Georgetown and a host of other schools hang around the cut line want these pick pockets run out of their respective tournaments as quickly as possible.  For fans of those schools, its all about the chalk (except in their own conference tournaments, of course).

We got our first bona fide thief last night with St. Mary's upset of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament.  Murray State may, or may not have been the first when they knocked off Belmont in the Ohio Valley over the weekend.  We won't know for sure on that one until selection Sunday.  If Belmont gets in, we will have our answer.  It may be just as likely, that St. Mary's stole Belmont's bid last night.  The collective groan from Raleigh to Phoenix as the clock expired in the WCC Championship game could be heard across the College Basketball landscape.

Looking ahead at the remaining 21 Conference Tournaments who will dole out auto bids this week, here are the remaining tournaments to watch if you're hunting for more bid thieves.

Best Chances

These are Mid-Major conferences with 1 Team who enters Championship Week as conference leader, but whom would safely be selected as an at large team if they failed to win their Conference Tournament

1. Mid-American Conference (MAC) - Buffalo enters post season play as the MAC leader and favorite to win the MAC tourney.  They currently rank as a #5 Seed on my projection, and are a consensus 6 at bracketmatrix.com.   No doubt they are a lock for the tourney no matter what happens to them, but no other MAC teams are on the bubble.  This is a very competitive conference, with some quality challengers for the Bulls to navigate through.  Buffalo enters play tomorrow in the Quaterfinal round facing Akron, who the Bulls have beaten twice including by 6 at Akron.  Buffalo has lost just 2 conference games this season, to Bowling Green and Northern Illinois.  Toledo is a very good team that have the players to compete with them as well.  All three teams reside in the other half of the bracket from Buffalo, so they only will have to navigate through one of them, which would be in the Championship game. 
2. Atlantic 10 Conference (A10) - The Atlantic 10 leaders VCU cruised to a 16-2 record to win the regular season title.  They also have been playing particularly good basketball of late, having won 12 in a row by an average of almost 18 points a game.  Are they due for a let down?  VCU gets the advantage of a double bye, so they will have time to rest while their first game opponents are slogging out games to get to them.  VCU will not play until Friday, but could get Rhode Island, the last team to beat VCU this season.  However, VCU avenged that loss with a 76-42 thrashing or URI back in February.  Perhaps the teams that present the greatest threats to VCU are Davidson, who beat the Rams in their only match-up in the regular season, and Dayton, who played VCU to within 1 and 5 points in their regular season contests.  If they are to face ether of those teams, it would have to be in the A10 Champtionship on Sunday.

 Worth Keeping an Eye On 

This represents any conference which currently have a conference leader who would safely qualify as an at-large and 2 or more teams that are in good position to qualify for at-large bids if a team not considered in the field today were to win the conference tournament.  In this situation, the current conference leaders AND the teams currently considered at large qualifiers would both have to lose.  In some cases those at-large teams are close enough to the cut line though, that a loss might mean it's there bid get stolen.

1. PAC 12 - The current conference leader is Washington, and are a lock for an at-large bid if they fail to win the automatic bid this weekend.  Arizona State is a dicier situation.  I have them as a 9 seed, and even with a bad early loss would still be in on my board.  Bracket Matrix shows them as a consensus 11 seed, meaning they are dangerously close to the cut line.  Quite honestly just about any loss in the PAC 12 tourney for Arizona State, aside from a loss to Washington is going to be damaging.  In order to feel confident that the PAC 12 could produce a bid thief, you need to hope for an early exit by Washington and for Arizona State to get to the Championship game and lose.  That wold mean someone like Oregon State or Colorado winning 3 straight.  It's not very likely.  It's possible Oregon could do it on Arizona State's half of the bracket.  A Semi-Final loss by Arizona State to Oregon might not be fatal to them.  I think Oregon is actually a real threat to win this tournament.  But if they do, it could very well be at the expense of a bid for the Sun Devils, especially if the Bracket Matrix consensus is a better projection of how they are seen by the committee than mine is.  If you're going hunting in this conference, Ducks are the game of choice.
2. Mountain West Conference (MWC) - A very similar situation to the PAC-12 sets up in the MWC.  Nevada is safely in, but like Washington, vulnerable.  Utah State is in, but in tenous position near the bubble cut-line.  Bracketmatrix shows Utah State safer than Arizona State, so if that consensus is correct, they may be safer than Arizona State should they both lose.  There are some dangerous teams in this conference, and this tournament is notorious for producing surprise winners.  I like Fresno State as a possible thief out of the MWC.
3. American Association Conference (AAC) - Things really starting getting complicated here.  Bottom line - Houston, Cincinnati and UCF look safe for an at-large if they all lose.  Temple probably needs to beat one of these teams to feel better about its chances.  However, for a thief to emerge from this conference, someone other than one of those four teams has to win it all ... and that is difficult to envision happening.  If you want to hunt for a thief here, keep your eye on Memphis.  If they were to play Temple for the A10 title and win a tight one, the Tigers could steal a bid, while Temple and the other 3 AAC teams currently projected in the field stay safe.

In all, 5 potential bid thieves lurk out there.  I put the over/under for number that will actually get the job done at 2.  Nothing would make me happier Championship week than to see at least 3 do it.