Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Bid & Bubble Math - 3/11

As we approach the mid-way point of Championship week, and with the Major Conference Tournaments swinging into gear today its time to take a fresh look a the field and figure out how many at-large bids remain available and identify how many teams are left competing for them.

Here is the breakdown of where the field stands, through games played on Tuesday, March 10th.

Field Construction and definition of terms used in 'Bid Math':

  • Total Field Size is 68 Teams
  • Conference Champions:  32 Teams Qualify for the Tournament by winning their conference tournament.
  • At-Large Selections:  The 36 Remaining spots in the field are chosen by the NCAA Selection Committee and are intended to be awarded to the 36 remaining teams in the NCAA who the Committee determines have done the most through the season to earn a bid in the tournament.
  • Definition of Terms:
    • Clinched - Teams that have won their Conference Tournament and clinched and Automatic Bid for the Tournament.
    • Conference Leaders - Teams who are currently in first place in their respective conference, and would be considered the 'Favorite' to win the tournament and earn the Automatic Bid.
    • At Large Locks - A team which has done enough already to be assured of being awarded an At-Large Bid even if they failed to win their conference tournament.
    • Bubble - Describes the universe of teams who have done enough to warrant consideration for inclusion as an At-Large Team, but have not done enough to guarantee they would be selected
      • Bubble Team In - A team that is projected to be an At-Large Team if the tournament field were selected today
      • Bubble Team Out - A team that is projected to be left out of the field if it were selected today, but still have an opportunity through remaining games to be played to earn a spot
    • Bid Thief - A team that has not done enough to earn an AT-LARGE bid, but earns an automatic bid by winning a conference tournament in a multiple bid conference. 

The Current Math:

  • Clinched an Automatic Bid (12)
  • Conference Leaders (20)
    • 7 Are AT-Large Locks if they don't earn Auto-Bid
    • 1 Are Bubble Teams (IN) if the don't earn Auto Bid
    • 12 Are Leading One Bid Conferences (Still Alive in Conference Tournament)
  • At-Large Locks (25)
  • THE BUBBLE:
    • Remaining At-Large Bids ( 11)
    • At Large Teams on the Bubble (22) - Which includes Conference Leaders who would be in contention for an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference Tournament Auto-Bid)
    • Possible 'Bid Thieves' (8)
    • This leaves 22 teams competing for between 3 and 11 At-Large Bids over the next 5 days.
Clinched an Automatic Bid


Status of Current Conference Leaders 
The teams below are currently leading their conference.  They are broken down into 3 Groups:

  • LEADERS with AT-LARGE LOCKS - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they have done enough already to guarantee they would be selected as an At-Large team.
  • LEADERS "ON THE BUBBLE" - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they likely will have to win more games to have done enough to get selected as an At-Large Team.
  • LEADERS of 'ONE BID' CONFERENCES - These teams currently lead in Conferences that do not have any teams who have done enough to be selected as an At-Large.  These Conferences will only get 1 Team in ... their Conference Tournament Champion.


AT-LARGE LOCKS (11)

The teams below are currently not leading a conference.  They have done enough to guarantee being selected as an At-Large Team even if they don't win their conference's Automatic Bid


THE 'AT-LARGE' BUBBLE

The teams below are the remaining teams in contention for the remaining open At-Large Bids.


  • Teams on the LEFT would be IN if the season ended today.
    • Teams shaded in GREEN above are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected that are given a 'BYE' and would not have to play a 'Play-In' game in the opening round in Dayton on March 24th or 25th
    • Teams shaded in YELLOW below are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected, and would be required to 'Play In' to the field of 64 by winning an opening round game in Dayton.
  • Teams on the RIGHT would be OUT if the season ended today.
    • Teams shaded in ORANGE are the first four teams left out of the field, and are therefore, in the best position to still earn an at-large bid by winning, and/or teams ahead of them losing
    • Teams shaded in MAROON are the next four teams out.  They are still in contention to earn an at-large bid, but have more work to do, and will need more help, then the first four out.  
    • Teams shaded in Blue are still under active consideration, or are 'on the radar', for consideration.  These teams are in most cases just one more loss away from being eliminated from contention, but could, if everything broke right for them, get back into serious contention for an At-Large Bid. 

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