Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Tuesday (2/19) Update

NOTES:
  • Oklahoma is only at-large team to drop out since last week, replaced in the field by VCU.
  • Three new Conference Leaders were added this week.  Yale moved back in replacing Princeton as the leader in the Ivy league, Texas State replaced UT-Arlington from the Atlantic Sun Conference, and Canisius takes Monmouth's spot as MAAC Leader.
  • Biggest move up in the field was Ole Miss, 8 spots on the S-Curve and up to seed lines from a 10 Seed to an 8 Seed
  • Biggest drop within the field Ohio State, who dropped 9 spots on the S-Curve and 2 seed lines from a 7 Seed to a 9 seed.


  • The #1 Seeds remain unchanged.  
  • Kentucky's big win over Tennessee Saturday night moves them closer to overtaking Gonzaga as the 4th #1 Seed.
  • Kansas replaces North Carolina on the #2 line.  
  • LSU and Texas Tech move into the top 16 and Louisville and Wisconsin drop out down to the 5 seed line.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousFebruary 20, 2019 at 12:09 PM

    This bracket has by far the largest outlier for Florida State. An 8 seed when they are now 21-5 with
    a 7-3 Q1 win record. Please explain yourself. They are far closer to a potential 3 seed then an 8 seed.

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  2. TDFebruary 20, 2019 at 6:02 PM

    Thanks for checking out the site and asking the question.

    This update was based on games through Sunday, February 17. Per the NCAA's own Team Sheets, Florida State had a Q1 record of 4-3. See link here: https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Games%20through%20Feb.%2018,%202019.pdf

    Even with last night's win, a Q1 Road win, the NCAA has their Q1 record at 5-3, not 7-3. On my S-curve on Monday afternoon, I had them at 25, which was the top #7 seed. They were moved to an 8 in a procedural bump to meet NCAA bracketing principles, which does represent their true seed line. I do provide my S-Curve as one of my slides with this update which is a better reflection of where I rank them, as opposed to seed them.

    As for the procedural bump, It's too complicated to explain in detail here. The NCAA has a document that explains the bracketing process for the committee which I do have a link to on this site, and I follow when placing teams from the S-Curve and into the bracket. Those principles allow for teams to be moved up or down one seed line in order to meet the bracketing rules. In this particular update, I had to move Florida State down 1 to make the bracket work according to the NCAA process. I will say, that as top heavy as the bracket is with so many teams from the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 in particular, it does present problems when trying to place teams into the bracket.

    Bottom line, I agree they were closer to a 6 than an 8 at the the time I built the bracket and are within striking distance of a 5 today after win last night, but don't see them as a top 16 team as you suggest.

    After their road win at Clemson last night, I do have them at 22 on the S-Curve now and on the 6 True Seed line, ahead of Virginia Tech. I will say, the 4-3 Q1 record (or even 5-3) is consistent with most of the teams in the seed range I have them in. It's a lot of hair splitting between about 14 and 26 on the S-Curve. I went back and looked to see if there was anything obvious I may have missed, but based on how I believe the committee would seed today, I'm ok with where I have them. Ultimately, the committee (and you) may weigh certain factors differently then I do when all is said and done. If you have a specific team you want me to compare them to and give you my reasoning, I'd be happy too, but I can't do it for 10-12 teams required to explain why I have them as a 6 instead of a 3.

    Thanks again for the inquiry.

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