Can Gonzaga Hold Onto a 1 Seed?

One of the interesting story lines to follow over the last month of the season is going to be whether or not Gonzaga, currently the 4th #1 Seed, can hang on to it until the brackets are released on Selection Sunday.

Gonzaga's challenge is that it has an incredibly weak schedule remaining.  Having dispatched the next best team in the conference this past weekend, a very mediocre Saint Mary's team, Gonzaga has very few opportunities left to win any games that will add to their resume'.  Any loss now, barring perhaps a neutral court loss in the West Coast Conference tournament to Saint Mary's would be considered a 'bad loss'.  In the mean time, the teams behind them in the 2 and 3 seed line who play in rugged conferences with highly rated teams are playing games that can impress the committee almost every night.

If Gonzaga is going to hold on, they will need a few more nights like the last couple to help.  The 4 number #2 seeds entering the week were held by Kentucky, Michigan, North Carolina and Michigan State.    On Monday North Carolina lost at home to Purdue.  Last night Michigan was clipped by Penn State, a team with only 1 win in the conference entering the game, and Kentucky fell at home to LSU.  Michigan State is the only #2 seed this week who hasn't lost.  They were teetering on the 2/3 seed line before getting a big win at Wisconsin last night.

If a team from the 2/3 seed lines is going to run down Gonzaga, one of them is going to have close out the season hot.  So far, no one is stepping up.  Michigan State had lost 3 in a row, including an ugly home loss to Indiana a couple Saturday's ago, before righting the ship with back to back wins including their road win at the Kohl Center last night.  Michigan, has lost 3 games in the last 2 weeks.  Kentucky looked like the team most likely to challenge Gonzaga for the last spot on the 1 seed line lost last night.  Tennessee is next up on the Wildcats schedule, which looked like a big opportunity to overtake Gonzaga by the end of the week, but last night's home loss to LSU has likely made that unlikely even if the 'Cats knock off the Vols.  From the 3 Line, Purdue lost last night.  Nevada and Houston have a similar issue to Gonzaga ... they just don't have enough quality opponents left.  Only Marquette looks like a team on the 3 line who could possibly play enough quality games to get there.  They likely would have to win out the season, including the Big East tournament to leap frog everyone in front of them, including Gonzaga.