SUNDAY UPDATE (2/24) - Through games played on Saturday, 02/23

This chart above represents the final seeding projections after following NCAA rules for team selection, seeding and bracketing.  These rules can be found here:  https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness.
A team's final seeding can be impacted one seed lineup or down from their 'True Seed' to accommodate these rules.  Here are the pertinent rules that most frequently lead to a team being moved up or down a seed line:

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament."

The chart below shows my ranking of teams from 1-76 (The 68 teams selected for the field plus 8 teams considered for at large bids that were not selected.  The S-Curve represents the overall ranking, and the seed represents the 'True Seed' before a team's final placement into the bracket.

The section titled 'Bracketing Notes' indicates the teams that I moved up or down a seed line to meet the bracketing rules of the NCAA.  In this update, for example, Florida State, with an S-Curve ranking of 22 was moved up from a 'True Seed' of 6 to a bracketed seed of 5, while Iowa, ranked 19 on the S-Curve was moved down from a 'True Seed' of 5 to a bracketed seed of 6.  

Basically, while I had Iowa ranked higher that Florida State, their seed positions in the brackets were swapped to meet NCAA Bracketing principles. 

The Chart below represent the changes in ranking (S-Curve) and seed line (True Seed) since my last update.  A negative number, in green, represents an improvement in ranking/seed.  A number in red, represents a decline in rank/seed.
For example, you will notice that North Carolina had an S-Curve change from 9 on 2/19 to 7 on 2/24.  This represent their overall rank improving from 9th to 7th.  This change resulted in them also moving up from a 3 Seed to a 2 seed since the last update.

• A team denoted with 'IN' represents a team that is new to the final 68 Team field since the last update, as is the case this week with Florida.  

• A team denoted with 'OUT' indicates the team has been removed from the tournament field since the last update, but is still a team 'under consideration' for an At-Large bid (non conference tournament champion).  UCF is a team that I had in the field last week, but is now out.

• A team denoted with 'NEW' indicates a new team 'under consideration' for an at large bid, who was not among the teams ranked 69 to 76 last week  San Francisco is one such team this week.

• A team denoted with 'OFF' represents a team that was in the field last week, but is no longer in the field, nor under consideration for an At-Large bid this week.  This is most common with small or mid-major teams who were leading in their conference standings at the time of the last update, but have since fallen of 1st place in their league and are not a strong enough team to be considered for an At-Large bid, like Northern Kentucky who was replaced in the field by the new Horizon League leader Wright State.

• Green highlight indicates a team  that is one of the final four At-Large teams to receive a bye in the first round (60 Teams)

• Yellow highlight indicates the team is one of the final four At-Large teams selected into the tournament.  They would be required to play in the First Round play-in games held on the Tuesday or Wednesday in Dayton before the Round of 64 games begin on Thursday, March 21st.

• Purple highlight indicates the team is one of the final 4 Teams in the field (16 seeds) who also must play their way into the field of 64 in Dayton on Tuesday or Wednesday.