Most notable was Northern Iowa's (UNI) blow out loss in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) tournament. With that loss, UNI is eliminated from contention for an Auto Bid, and now can only qualify with an At-Large Bid. I still have them in the field as of this morning, as one of the Final Four Bye's. A closer examination at my next full field scrub with updated data from the NCAA could change that. Of course there is a full slate of action involving the bubble teams below them as well over the next couple of days that could also squeeze them closer to the cut line.
The significance of their loss is that it presents the arrival of the first potential bid thief which would shrink the size of the bubble. If UNI had won the MVC Auto-Bid, they would have been the only team to qualify from the conference. However, with the continued inclusion of UNI as an At-Large team, the MVC would be assured of two bids, and thus would reduce the number of at-large bids available by one.
This update reflects that scenario. Bradley is now included in the field as the leader of the MVC by virtue of it being the highest seeded team remaining in the MVC tournament field (4th). 2nd seeded Loyola-Chicago was also eliminated yesterday as was 3rd Seed Indiana State. As an aside, the MVC tournament is one of my favorites, and has produces huge upsets almost every year, as well as teams that spring upsets in the NCAA. Recall Loyola-Chicago's remarkable run to the Final Four in in 2018 as just one example.
With Bradley now occupying a second MVC bid in my projection, Mississippi State, who was the last team in on my seed list yesterday has been squeezed out, and now resides as first team out.
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