Bid & Bubble Math - 3/11

As we approach the mid-way point of Championship week, and with the Major Conference Tournaments swinging into gear today its time to take a fresh look a the field and figure out how many at-large bids remain available and identify how many teams are left competing for them.

Here is the breakdown of where the field stands, through games played on Tuesday, March 10th.

Field Construction and definition of terms used in 'Bid Math':

• Total Field Size is 68 Teams
• Conference Champions:  32 Teams Qualify for the Tournament by winning their conference tournament.
• At-Large Selections:  The 36 Remaining spots in the field are chosen by the NCAA Selection Committee and are intended to be awarded to the 36 remaining teams in the NCAA who the Committee determines have done the most through the season to earn a bid in the tournament.
• Definition of Terms:
• Clinched - Teams that have won their Conference Tournament and clinched and Automatic Bid for the Tournament.
• Conference Leaders - Teams who are currently in first place in their respective conference, and would be considered the 'Favorite' to win the tournament and earn the Automatic Bid.
• At Large Locks - A team which has done enough already to be assured of being awarded an At-Large Bid even if they failed to win their conference tournament.
• Bubble - Describes the universe of teams who have done enough to warrant consideration for inclusion as an At-Large Team, but have not done enough to guarantee they would be selected
• Bubble Team In - A team that is projected to be an At-Large Team if the tournament field were selected today
• Bubble Team Out - A team that is projected to be left out of the field if it were selected today, but still have an opportunity through remaining games to be played to earn a spot
• Bid Thief - A team that has not done enough to earn an AT-LARGE bid, but earns an automatic bid by winning a conference tournament in a multiple bid conference. 

The Current Math:

• Clinched an Automatic Bid (12)
• Conference Leaders (20)
• 7 Are AT-Large Locks if they don't earn Auto-Bid
• 1 Are Bubble Teams (IN) if the don't earn Auto Bid
• 12 Are Leading One Bid Conferences (Still Alive in Conference Tournament)
• At-Large Locks (25)
• THE BUBBLE:
• Remaining At-Large Bids ( 11)
• At Large Teams on the Bubble (22) - Which includes Conference Leaders who would be in contention for an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference Tournament Auto-Bid)
• Possible 'Bid Thieves' (8)
• This leaves 22 teams competing for between 3 and 11 At-Large Bids over the next 5 days.

Clinched an Automatic Bid

Status of Current Conference Leaders 
The teams below are currently leading their conference.  They are broken down into 3 Groups:

• LEADERS with AT-LARGE LOCKS - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they have done enough already to guarantee they would be selected as an At-Large team.
• LEADERS "ON THE BUBBLE" - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they likely will have to win more games to have done enough to get selected as an At-Large Team.
• LEADERS of 'ONE BID' CONFERENCES - These teams currently lead in Conferences that do not have any teams who have done enough to be selected as an At-Large.  These Conferences will only get 1 Team in ... their Conference Tournament Champion.

AT-LARGE LOCKS (11)

The teams below are currently not leading a conference.  They have done enough to guarantee being selected as an At-Large Team even if they don't win their conference's Automatic Bid

THE 'AT-LARGE' BUBBLE

The teams below are the remaining teams in contention for the remaining open At-Large Bids.

• Teams on the LEFT would be IN if the season ended today.
• Teams shaded in GREEN above are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected that are given a 'BYE' and would not have to play a 'Play-In' game in the opening round in Dayton on March 24th or 25th
• Teams shaded in YELLOW below are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected, and would be required to 'Play In' to the field of 64 by winning an opening round game in Dayton.
• Teams on the RIGHT would be OUT if the season ended today.
• Teams shaded in ORANGE are the first four teams left out of the field, and are therefore, in the best position to still earn an at-large bid by winning, and/or teams ahead of them losing
• Teams shaded in MAROON are the next four teams out.  They are still in contention to earn an at-large bid, but have more work to do, and will need more help, then the first four out.  
• Teams shaded in Blue are still under active consideration, or are 'on the radar', for consideration.  These teams are in most cases just one more loss away from being eliminated from contention, but could, if everything broke right for them, get back into serious contention for an At-Large Bid. 

Full Update - 03/11

Here is a full update for games played through Tuesday, March 10th.

Major and many Mid-Major Tournaments will swing into full gear over the next couple of days while most Smaller Conferences who have not yet crowned their Champions to earn automatic bids will do so over the next coupe of days as well

Bracketed following NCAA Bracketing Principles

Bracket Notes

Procedural Seed Changes from Seed List:

• Ohio State - UP to a 5 Seed
• Xavier - UP to a 9 Seed
• Virginia - DOWN to a 6 Seed
• ETSU - DOWN to a 10 Seed

Conference Tournament Champions (Clinched Automatic Bid)

• Gonzaga (West Coast Conference)
• East Tennessee State (Southern Conference)
• Utah State (Mountain West Conference)
• Liberty (Atlantic Sun Conference)
• Bradley (Missouri Valley Conference)
• Belmont (Ohio Valley Conference)
• Winthrop (Big South Conference)
• Robert Morris (Northeast Conference)
• Yale (Ivy League)*

* The Ivy League announced yesterday that they were cancelling their conference Tournament and awarded the automatic bid to their regular season conference champion.

Update Seed List - 3/10 AM

Updated seed list through games played on Monday, March 9th.

Planning a full update for Wednesday morning just before Major Conference's tournaments swing in to full gear.

Teams highlighted in RED have won their conference tournament and clinched an Automatic Bid.

Two SEC Bubbles Burst

Two SEC teams have come off the board as teams under consideration for an At-Large with losses in early Saturday action.

First, Tennessee falls out after being hammered at home by Auburn by 18 points.  Vols fall to 17-14, 3-10 vs. Quad 1, and just 4-11 against field under consideration.

Next, South Carolina falls on the road to Vanderbilt.  The loss is their 3rd Q3/4 loss of the season, drops them to 18-14, and to .500 in the SEC.  Just too many teams on the bubble with better resumes ahead of them.  In the unlikely event they manage to beat Tennessee and Auburn en-route to SEC Championship game we can talk.  Reality is though, that not likely to get both of them before a title game.

Top Games/Viewers Guide - 3/7

Today's Top Games - March 7th

Conference Tournament Championship Games

Automatic Bids will be awarded to winners of these Conference Tournament Championship Games.  Conference Tournament Seeding in parentheses.

Utah State (2) vs. San Diego State (1) - Mountain West Conference
Time:  4:30 PM (CST)
Where:  Thomas & Mack Arena - Las Vegas, NV
Network:  CBS

At lot at stake in this one.  Utah State is technically on the bubble, but on the outside looking in.  A loss and they are no longer under consideration for an At-Large.  In reality, this makes them a potential bid thief as San Diego State is currently locked in and sitting on the 1 Seed line.  If Utah State wins, the likelihood for SD State to stay on that #1 seed line falls is dramatically diminished.  If the Aztecs prevail, it may be enough to lock a #1 Seed down

Murray State (2) vs.Belmont(1) - Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)
Time:  7:00 PM
Where:  Ford Center - Evansville, IN

Winner gets the Auto-Bid for the OVC.  If Belmont loses, they get auto bid to NIT as Regular Season OVC Champ.

Bracket Games

Biggest games of the day involving at least one team locked in as an At-Large qualifier.  Outcome likely to impact NCAA seeding of team(s) playing, as well as seeding in each team's respective Conference Tourney.

• Wisconsin at Indiana (11:00 AM CST, ESPN) - Wisconsin among the hottest teams in the nation has rocketed to a 5 Seed over the span of their current 7 game winning streak.  A win today would put them in a legitimate position at a protected seed (4 or higher) in NCAA Tournament.  Indiana is in a strong position on the bubble and would lock an At-Large bid over the Badgers.  A loss puts a lot more pressure on them to get at least one win in the Big Ten Tournament to avoid falling dangerously close to the field cut line.
• Baylor at West Virginia (12:00 PM)
• Kansas at Texas Tech (1:00 PM ESPN)
• Ohio State at Michigan State
• Louisville at Virginia (3:00 PM CST, ESPN) - A Louisville win guarantees them at least a share of the ACC Regular Season title.  Virginia, with a win and some help from Boston College who is playing at Florida State later, could catch a share of the title.  Virginia comes in having won 7 straight, including thrillers over Duke and Virginia Tech in the past week.  Louisville in desperate need of a Quad 1A win to improve a shallow resume' vs. Top Teams which is dampening their prospects for anything better than a 4 seed in NCAA Tourney despite being the current leader of the ACC.  Great illustration of just how down the ACC is this year.
• Seton Hall at Creighton (1:30 PM CST, FOX) - Game of the day in the Big East.  Very little separates these teams at the moment from an NCAA Seeding perspective.  Both are projected as either 2 or 3 Seeds.  Winner dramatically improves its chances for a 2 seed in the NCAA while the loser likely is locked in no better than a 3 Seed, barring a deep Big East Tournament Run and some help.  From Conference perspective Seton Hall clinches the Big East Regular Season Title outright with a win, while a Creighton win would ensure they capture a share of it.  Creighton won the earlier match-up by 5 at Seton Hall back on February 12th.
• Butler at Xavier (7:30 PM, FS1) - Like Indiana, Xavier appears to be well situated on the bubble and could clinch an At-Large with a win over the Bulldogs.  A loss drops them into dangerous territory headed into the Big East Tourney.

Bubble Games

Biggest Games involving at least 1 Team considered to be on the bubble today.  Bubble Teams are in Bold. Teams with locked At-Large bids highlighted in yellow.

• Marquette at St. John's (11:00 AM)
• Tennessee vs. Auburn (11:00 AM, ESPN2)
• South Carolina at Vanderbilt (11:30 AM, SEC Network)
• Florida vs Kentucky (12:00 PM, CBS)
• Rutgers at Purdue (1:00 PM, Big Ten Network) - I believe this to be, barring one of these teams running to the Big Ten Tournament Championship game, a virtual elimination game.  Rutgers,as I noted yesterday ('What to do with Rutgers ...') is desperately in need of at least 1 road win against a Quad 1 opponent.  Purdue, who has been on life support for 2 weeks since falling to 6-10 in the conference has kept themselves breathing winning the last 3.  A win here keeps them alive.  A loss and they are out of At-Large consideration.
• UCLA at USC  (2:15 PM, CBS)
• Texas vs. Oklahoma State (3:00 PM, ESPN2)
• Arkansas at Texas A&M (3;30 PM, SEC Network)
• Oklahoma at TCU (5:00 PM, ESPN2)
• Arizona State vs. Washington State (5:30 PM, PAC 12 Network)
• Stanford at Oregon (10:00 PM, FS1)

Updated Seed List - 03/07 AM

Conference tournaments already underway produced results yesterday that has changed the complexion of the field since yesterday morning.  This update reflects those changes.

Most notable was Northern Iowa's (UNI) blow out loss in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) tournament.  With that loss, UNI is eliminated from contention for an Auto Bid, and now can only qualify with an At-Large Bid.  I still have them in the field as of this morning, as one of the Final Four Bye's.  A closer examination at my next full field scrub with updated data from the NCAA could change that.  Of course there is a full slate of action involving the bubble teams below them as well over the next couple of days that could also squeeze them closer to the cut line. 

The significance of their loss is that it presents the arrival of the first potential bid thief which would shrink the size of the bubble.  If UNI had won the MVC Auto-Bid, they would have been the only team to qualify from the conference.  However, with the continued inclusion of UNI as an At-Large team, the MVC would be assured of two bids, and thus would reduce the number of at-large bids available by one.

This update reflects that scenario.  Bradley is now included in the field as the leader of the MVC by virtue of it being the highest seeded team remaining in the MVC tournament field (4th).  2nd seeded Loyola-Chicago was also eliminated yesterday as was 3rd Seed Indiana State.   As an aside, the MVC tournament is one of my favorites, and has produces huge upsets almost every year, as well as teams that spring upsets in the NCAA.  Recall Loyola-Chicago's remarkable run to the Final Four in in 2018 as just one example.

With Bradley now occupying a second MVC bid in my projection, Mississippi State, who was the last team in on my seed list yesterday has been squeezed out, and now resides as first team out.

What to do with Rutgers ...

Each NCAA Tournament Selection year presents the Selection Committee (and by extension, "bracketologists") with a team or two that can be very difficult to assess in comparison to the rest of the at-large field.  Usually they are teams on the bubble, and how the Committee sorts it out sometimes sets something of a precedent for future selections.

This year's candidate for most unusual resume', at least in my book, is that of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  I've been doing this for many years now, and I don't ever recall ever coming across one quite like the one they have assembled this year.  As a result, trying to figure out how the Committee will view them begs the question 'What to do with Rutgers'?

At first glance Rutgers has a strong resume' for an at large team.  The metrics rankings suggest a team that would get seeded safely in the field around the 7-9 seed line.  They have a NET Ranking of 31, Predictive Metrics Ranking Average of 31.3, and strength of record of 38.  Additionally, they own a Non-Conference strength of schedule (NCSOS) inside in 100 (out of about 350) where they won 8 of 10 games.  They have 4 Quad 1 wins, and 8 combined wins among Quad 1 and the top tier of Quad 2.  They are guaranteed to be no worse than .500 during the Regular season playing in arguably the country's best conference, top to bottom.  Taking these metrics and comparing them to those of the 2019 At-Large teams selected, this compares very similarly to Iowa, who finished 10-10 in the Big Ten, had a NET Rating of 40, predictive metrics average of 37, had 4 Quad 1 wins, and were 9-10 vs. Quad 1 and top tier of Quad 2.  That Iowa team was ranked 37th on the committee's final seed list and earned a 10 seed, several positions above the last 4 byes ... in other words ... safely in.   If anything, Rutgers high level measurements are better than Iowa's.  On the surface they would appear to have already locked a bid.  However, on my seed list I have them as one of the last 4 teams in, and hanging on by thread!

You see, this Rutgers team presents a very interesting wrinkle in their resume' that varies dramatically from Iowa a year ago.  While Iowa demonstrated they were capable of winning away from Iowa City by going 6-7 in Quad 1 and 2 games away from home, Rutgers has won exactly ZERO such games this season.  Despite 18 wins, and nearly half of them against teams with NET ratings no worse than 54, not a singe one has come away from Rutgers home gym.  Rutgers is a shocking 0-9 against Quad 1 or 2 teams away from home.  They have just 1 road win the entire season!  That came against Nebraska who has won just 7 games this season and hold a NET Rating of 193.  If you can't win away from your gym, its hard to convince the selection committee you could do it in a Tournament against Quad 1 and 2 level talent where every game is away from home.

The fact is, I don't recall ever seeing a resume' in which an at-large contender did not have a single road or neutral court victory to at least one of the top 190 teams in the country, as measured by the NCAA's primary ranking tool.   I went back and looked to see if I could find a comparable in team in terms of road/neutral futility in recent years and could find only one remotely comparable team.  There was no other team even close at least in the last 5 seasons.  Only one was even in the neighborhood.  In 2017 Syracuse entered Selection Sunday squarely on the bubble.  2017 was before the NCAA started using either the NET Rankings as its primary sorting tool, or grouping wins and losses based on Quads so an apple to apples comparison is difficult.  However that Syracuse team entered selection Sunday with just a 2-11 record away from home and none of them came against teams ranked in the RPI Top 50, which is roughly comparable to today's Quad 1 + Top Tier of Quad 2 groupings.  That team was left out of the field, most likely for Kansas State who was 9-8 away from home.  Of those 9 wins 5 were against the RPI top 50.  This despite the fact that Syracuse had more wins against the RPI Top 25, 50 and 100 than K-State.  Hard to imagine that road record was not a huge part of the calculus to take K-State instead of Syracuse.

The comparison isn't perfect.  Syracuse carried a poor 200+ NCSOS and an RPI of well over 80.  Those are (or were in the case of RPI) numbers that no doubt contributed to being left out of the field.  As noted, Rutgers carries a very good NET (which replaced RPI) and reasonably strong NCSOS that is going to offset the poor road record to some degree.  How much is the part that is difficult to predict, precisely because we haven't seen a team with a resume' quite like Rutgers in some time, if ever.

My gut feeling is that if Rutgers fails to pick up a Q1 or Q2 Road or neutral win before next Sunday, they won't get in, and it won't really be all that close.  Getting only 1 may not even be enough.  The committee has consistently emphasized that demonstrating the ability to win away from home, which all NCAA Tournament games obviously are, is a factor in the selection and seeding processes.  Rutgers current level of futility in this area appears nearly unprecedented among tournament at-large teams in at least the past 5 years.  Tomorrow's game  at Purdue (NET 32) gives Rutgers perhaps their last chance at a Quad 1 road win (and a top tier of Q1 at that).  A loss tomorrow could be fatal for Rutgers, unless they can string together a couple Q1 and/or Q2 wins in the Big Ten Tournament.  Even at that, they are likely to be right on or very near the cut line.

If I'm wrong, it may be an indication that the NET and Predictive Metric rankings carry more weight than actual game results with this particular committee.  If that's the case, several other teams with strong NET rankings but light in wins in some other measurable way, may secure seedings that are higher than teams with similar profiles that have come along have in the past.

Bid Math - 03/06

Most conferences head into their last weekend of Regular Season Play.  The remainder have already started, or are about to start, their Conference Tournaments where Automatic Bids will be awarded to the Conference Tournament Champions. The composition of the 68 team field has come into clearer focus in the past week, but much remains to be settled.  In Bid Math, I attempt to lay out who has clinched a bid and who is on the bubble needing to earn their way in by either winning their conference tournament or doing enough to earn an At-Large Bid.  As of this writing Selection Sunday is now just 9 days away.


Here is the breakdown of where the field stands, through games played on Thursday, March 5th.
First a refresher on how the field is constructed and definition of terms used in 'Bid Math':

• Total Field Size is 68 Teams
• Conference Champions:  32 Teams Qualify for the Tournament by winning their conference tournament.
• At-Large Selections:  The 36 Remaining spots in the field are chosen by the NCAA Selection Committee and are intended to be awarded to the 36 Non-Conference Champions who the Committee determines have done the most through the season to be selected.
• Definition of Terms:
• Conference Leaders - Teams who are currently in first place in their respective conference, and would be considered the 'Favorite' to win the tournament and earn the Automatic Bid.
• At Large Locks - A team which has done enough already to be assured of being awarded an At-Large Bid even if they failed to win their conference tournament.
• Bubble - Describes the universe of teams who have done enough to warrant consideration for inclusion as an At-Large Team, but have not done enough to guarantee they would be selected
• Bubble Team In - A team that is projected to be an At-Large Team if the tournament field were selected today
• Bubble Team Out - A team that is projected to be left out of the field if it were selected today, but still have an opportunity through remaining games to be played to earn a spot
• Bid Thief - A team that has not done enough to earn an AT-LARGE bid, but earns an automatic bid by winning a conference tournament in a multiple bid conference. 

The Current Math:

• Conference Leaders (32)
• 8 Are AT-Large Locks if they don't earn Auto-Bid
• 4 Are Bubble Teams (IN) if the don't earn Auto Bid
• 20 Are Leading One Bid Conferences
• At-Large Locks (23)
• THE BUBBLE:
• Remaining At-Large Bids ( 13)
• At Large Teams on the Bubble (28) - Which includes Conference Leaders who would be in contention for an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference Tournament Auto-Bid)
• Possible 'Bid Thieves' (11 or 12) - Tulsa is a marginal Bubble Team if they fail to win the American Athletic Conference.  Highly Unlikely they could earn a bid but I am keeping that option open for the time being.
• This leaves 28 teams competing for between 1 and 13 At-Large Bids over the next 9 days.

Status of Current Conference Leaders 
The teams below are currently leading their conference.  They are broken down into 3 Groups:

• LEADERS with AT-LARGE LOCKS - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they have done enough already to guarantee they would be selected as an At-Large team.
• LEADERS "ON THE BUBBLE" - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they likely will have to win more games to have done enough to get selected as an At-Large Team.
• LEADERS of 'ONE BID' CONFERENCES - These teams currently lead in Conferences that do not have any teams who have done enough to be selected as an At-Large.  These Conferences will only get 1 Team in ... their Conference Tournament Champion.

AT-LARGE LOCKS (11)

The teams below are currently not leading a conference.  They have done enough to guarantee being selected as an At-Large Team even if they don't win their conference's Automatic Bid

THE 'AT-LARGE' BUBBLE

The teams below are the remaining teams in contention for the remaining open At-Large Bids.

• Teams on the LEFT would be IN if the season ended today.
• Teams shaded in GREEN above are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected that are given a 'BYE' and would not have to play a 'Play-In' game in the opening round in Dayton on March 24th or 25th
• Teams shaded in YELLOW below are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected, and would be required to 'Play In' to the field of 64 by winning an opening round game in Dayton.
• Teams on the RIGHT would be OUT if the season ended today.
• Teams shaded in ORANGE are the first four teams left out of the field, and are therefore, in the best position to still earn an at-large bid by winning, and/or teams ahead of them losing
• Teams shaded in MAROON are the next four teams out.  They are still in contention to earn an at-large bid, but have more work to do, and will need more help, then the first four out.  
• Teams shaded in Blue are still under active consideration, or are 'on the radar', for consideration.  These teams are in most cases just one more loss away from being eliminated from contention, but could, if everything broke right for them, get back into serious contention for an At-Large Bid. 

Full Bracket Projection - 03/06/2020

Here is a complete update heading into the last weekend of Regular season play for the major conferences.  This update includes a Full Bracket Projection, Complete Seed List, 2nd and 3rd Round Site Assignments and a comparison to the seed list from 02/28.

I did a complete scrub of the data, resulting in some changes in seeding that were more a result of re-evaluation than game outcomes this week.  There are more than a couple challenging resumes to try and sort through.  More on that in a later post ...

New Teams In The Field;

• Texas (At-Large)
• Tulsa ( American Athletic Leader)
• Eastern Washington (Big Sky Leader)
• North Carolina Central (Mid-Eastern Athletic Leader)

At-Large Teams Out of the Field:

• Richmond
• North Carolina State

Procedural Seed Adjustments (To Comply with NCAA Bracketing Guidelines)

• Colorado - Moved UP to a 5 Seed
• Michigan - Moved UP to a 6 Seed
• USC - Moved UP to a 9 Seed
• Ohio State - Moved DOWN to a 6 Seed
• Auburn - Moved DOWN to a 7 Seed
• East Tennessee State - Moved DOWN to a 10 Seed

Moving on Up (Biggest Seed/S-Curve Gains)

• Providence - 3 Seed Lines and 11 Spots on the S-Curve
• Virginia - 2 Seed Lines and 7 Spots on the S-Curve
• Villanova - 2 Seed Lines and 5 Spots on the S-Curve
• USC - 1 Seed Line and 5 Spots on the S-Curve

Sinking Like a Rock (Biggest Seed/S-Curve Drops)

• Marquette - 2 Seed Lines and 8 Spots on the S-Curve
• Seton Hall  - 1 Seed Line and 6 Spots on the S-Curve
• UC Irvine - 1 Seed Line and 5 Spots on the S-Curve

Bubbles Burst - (No Longer Under Consideration for an At-Large Bid)

• Georgetown
• Alabama
• UNC Greensboro
• Notre Dame
• Syracuse

Updated Seed List - 03/02

Here is the updated seed list through games played on Sunday, March 1st

BID MATH - 02/29

As the Regular season begins to draw to a close, a picture of the teams that are in, or on the bubble is coming into clearer focus.  Smaller conferences will wrap up play this weekend and begin their conference tournaments starting next week.  Larger conferences have just 2-3 games remaining in their regular season schedules and will conclude regular season play by next weekend.  Selection Sunday is now just 15 days away.


Here is the breakdown of where the field stands, through games played on Friday, February 28th

First a refresher on how the field is constructed and definition of terms used in 'Bid Math':

• Total Field Size is 68 Teams
• Conference Champions:  32 Teams Qualify for the Tournament by winning their conference tournament.
• At-Large Selections:  The 36 Remaining spots in the field are chosen by the NCAA Selection Committee and are intended to be awarded to the 36 Non-Conference Champions who the Committee determines have done the most through the season to be selected.
• Definition of Terms:
• Conference Leaders - Teams who are currently in first place in their respective conference, and would be considered the 'Favorite' to win the tournament and earn the Automatic Bid.
• At Large Locks - A team which has done enough already to be assured of being awarded an At-Large Bid even if they failed to win their conference tournament.
• Bubble - Describes the universe of teams who have done enough to warrant consideration for inclusion as an At-Large Team, but have not done enough to guarantee they would be selected
• Bubble Team In - A team that is projected to be an At-Large Team if the tournament field were selected today
• Bubble Team Out - A team that is projected to be left out of the field if it were selected today, but still have an opportunity through remaining games to be played to earn a spot
• Bid Thief - A team that has not done enough to earn an AT-LARGE bid, but earns an automatic bid by winning a conference tournament in a multiple bid conference. 

The Current Math:

• Conference Leaders (32)
• 9 Are AT-Large Locks if they don't earn Auto-Bid
• 3 Are Bubble Teams (IN) if the don't earn Auto Bid
• 20 Are Leading One Bid Confernces
• At-Large Locks (11)
• THE BUBBLE:
• Remaining At-Large Bids ( 25)
• At Large Teams on the Bubble (33)
• Possible 'Bid Thieves' (11)
• Bubble Size - 14-25 Open Slots

Under this projection there are currently 36 Teams (33 At-Large plus 3 Conference Leaders who have not locked an At-Large Bid) in contention for at most 25 remaining At-Large Bids.  A detailed break down of how the field is comprised can be found below.

Status of Current Conference Leaders 
The teams below are currently leading their conference.  They are broken down into 3 Groups:

• LEADERS with AT-LARGE LOCKS - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they have done enough already to guarantee they would be selected as an At-Large team.
• LEADERS "ON THE BUBBLE" - These teams lead their respective conference and would be the favorite today to win their conferences Automatic Bid.  However, if they don't, they likely will have to win more games to have done enough to get selected as an At-Large Team.
• LEADERS of 'ONE BID' CONFERENCES - These teams currently lead in Conferences that do not have any teams who have done enough to be selected as an At-Large.  These Conferences will only get 1 Team in ... their Conference Tournament Champion.

AT-LARGE LOCKS (11)

The teams below are currently not leading a conference.  They have done enough to guarantee being selected as an At-Large Team even if they don't win their conference's Automatic Bid

THE 'AT-LARGE' BUBBLE

The teams below are the remaining teams in contention for the remaining open At-Large Bids.

• Teams on the LEFT would be IN if the season ended today.
• Teams shaded in GREEN above are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected that are given a 'BYE' and would not have to play a 'Play-In' game in the opening round in Dayton on March 24th or 25th
• Teams shaded in YELLOW below are the Last 4 At-Large Teams selected, and would be required to 'Play In' to the field of 64 by winning an opening round game in Dayton.
• Teams on the RIGHT would be OUT if the season ended today.
• Teams shaded in ORANGE are the first four teams left out of the field, and are therefore, in the best position to still earn an at-large bid by winning, and/or teams ahead of them losing
• Teams shaded in MAROON are the next four teams out.  They are still in contention to earn an at-large bid, but have more work to do, and will need more help, then the first four out.  
• Teams shaded in Blue and Pink are still under active consideration, or are 'on the radar', for consideration.  These teams are in most cases just one more loss away from being eliminated from contention, but could, if everything broke right for them, get back into serious contention for an At-Large Bid. 

Full Bracket Projection - 02/28

Below is February's final full bracket projection which includes results from games played through Thursday, February 27th.

Two new teams appear in the field from the last week as a result of taking the lead in their conference standings:

• Bowling Green has retaken the lead in the MAC Conference
• Northern Colorado is selected from the 3-way tie atop the Big Sky Standings based on best NET Ranking.

Biggest Movers in the field from last Monday:

• Wisconsin moves up 6 spots on the S-Curve and a full seed line following their Q1a Road win at Michigan last night.  The Badgers have now won 5 straight, are 11-6 in the Big Ten and in a 4 way tie for 2nd behind Maryland.
• West Virginia drops 5 spots on the S-Curve and 2 Seed Lines after losing at Texas this week.  The Mountaineers have lost 5 of 6 heading into the final 3 regular season Big 12 games of the season.

Full Bracket Projection - 02/24/2020

I put this together this morning and forgot to post.  It's my latest full bracket projection along with 2nd and 3rd Site assignments, Seed List and Seed/Rank Compare to last week.  This is through all games played Sunday, February 23rd.  It's updated from what was posted yesterday, but already somewhat obsolete given Monday night games are already underway.

Seed List and Field Ranking - 02/23

It's been a fascinating week of Men's NCAA Basketball, as reflected in my most recent seed list and field ranking (or S-Curve).   You can find the listing below the analysis below.




Here are a few of the more intriguing stories from the past week:

• Entering play on Saturday, 3 of the projected #1 Seeds (Baylor, Gonzaga and San Diego State) entered play a combined 77-2 on the season.  On Saturday, they went a combined 0-3.  Despite those 3  #1 seeds losing, each remains on the 1 Seed line.  Baylor remains the #1 over all, but Kansas closed the gap by beating Baylor, at Baylor.  Each has beaten the other at their place.  The difference?  Baylor is 10-1 against Quad 1 opponents and 6-1 against the top tier of Quad 1.  Kansas is 11-3 and 7-3 respectively.   Would love to see the matter settled with a rubber match on a neutral court in the Big 12 Tournament title game.
• It was a roller coast week for teams on the bubble.  Three teams who were not in the field charged in this week from seemingly no where.  
• UCLA:  Just a couple weeks ago the Bruins were floating around .500 in the PAC 12 and were sitting around 100 in the NET rankings and not even being discussed.  That was just before a starting a 5 game winning streak started with a huge road win at Arizona and culminated in dramatic fashion yesterday with a come from behind win at then PAC 12 Leader Colorado.  The Bruins are now 10-5 in the PAC 12 and just a half game behind this weeks new leader, Arizona State.  They have moved up 22 spots in the NET Rankings, and are now in my projected field as one of the last 4 in.  With 5 Quad 1 wins, including 3 against the NET Top 15 (2 on the road) and 2 more Q1 games remaining, and match-up Thursday against Arizona State at home, they have an opportunity to continue the meteoric ascent.
• Providence:   Entered February on a 3 game losing streak and sitting at .500 in the stacked Big East Conference, but a brutal schedule ahead of them, and carrying 4 Quad 3/4 losses from November.  After two big wins to open the month at Butler, and at home over Creighton, they started showing up on some people's watch lists.  They then dropped 3 straight games, fell below .500 in the conference, and again fell of the radar.  Since then though, Since then they have beaten conference leader Seton Hall, fellow bubble team Georgetown on their home floor, and completed a season sweep of Marquette.   With the help of a number of bubble teams imploding during the same time, Providence has surged into the field with a hard to ignore 7 Quad 1 wins, including 3 against the top tier, and two of those, on the road.
• NC State:  NC State had been hanging around the outside of the field for a couple weeks.  Straddled with an unusually weak ACC Conference beyond the top 3 teams, and lacking a signature win,  the Wolf Pack was finding it hard pressed to crack the field against teams getting more opportunities to get Q1 wins.  That all changed this past week when NC State hammered Duke by 22 points.  With their first Q1 win against a NET Top 10 team, and 5th Q1 win overall, NC State finally had the signature win they needed to get into the field.  While they failed Saturday to extend the moment when they lost at home to Florida State, the imploding bubble below them kept them in the field this week just one spot away from being one of the Last 4 In.
• Related to the unforeseen rise of the teams above into the field was an implosion of teams right above and below the bubble cut line.  Here are a couple of the more compelling examples
• Purdue One of the most schizophrenic teams I have seen this season.  They have blown out tournament level compeition like Michigan State (by 29), Iowa (by 36) Virginia (by 29) and Wisconsin (by 19).  Yet were only 14-12 heading into a crucial week this week and went on to lose at Wisconsin and then at home to Michigan, dropping them to 14-14 overall and 7-10 in the Big 10.  They aren't dead yet, but one more conference loss likely puts them in a position of having to win the Big Ten Tourney to get in.
• Georgetown snuck into the conversation, and some people's projected field (including mine) after last Saturday's huge road win at Butler, and losses by Arkansas, Purdue and Minnesota.  They then proceeded to lose back to back games this week to fellow bubble team Providence on their home floor, and at DePaul yesterday.  Georgetown now finds itself with 10 Quad 1 losses, and 4 games below .500 in the Big East.  They still have chance to get back in the discussion, with 3 Quad 1 games remaining.  But they will likely have to run the gauntlet of winning at Marquette Wednesday, then at home against Xavier, at Creighton and home against Villanova.

Full Bracketed Field Projection - 02/18/20

Every couple of weeks or so I will do full blind re-scrub of the teams under consideration.  This will result in some changes to the field, and that was the case this week.

After fully scrubbing the field this morning Penn State, Creighton, Michigan and Arizona all made at least 2 Seed line jumps up on the seed list.

Sliding down at least 2 seed lines or more were West Virginia, Illinois, Bowling Green and Winthrop.

Seed List and Ranking of Field - 02/16

Here is the my current rankings and true seed list of the full 68 team field, plus the next 12 outside of the bubble and looking in through all games played Saturday, February 15th. 

First Full Bracketed Projection - 02/10/20

Today I am releasing a full update which includes a full bracket projection, created following NCAA Seeding and Bracketing guidelines.

This update is complete through games played Sunday, February 9th and does include some changes from the Seed List published yesterday.