MICHIGAN or MONMOUTH

Lots of discussion today about whether or not Michigan has done enough to make the field.  After losing to Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament Semi-Finals, I have them out ... and Monmouth in as the last team in.

Lets do a quick comparison:

                                 Monmouth            Michigan

Record:                       27-7                         21-12
RPI:                            57                             55
vs Top 25:                  0-1                            3-7
vs Top 50:                  2-2                            4-11
vs Top 100:                4-4                            4-12
vs Potential Field:      3-4                            4-12
Road/Nuetral:             17-6                         9-7
R/N Wins vs Top 50:  2                              2
Non Conf SOS Rank:  128                         209
   
These are among the key factors used by the committee to compare teams under consideration for an At-Large Bid.  Committee members routinely say its about Who you Beat, Where you Beat Them, and Who did you play.

Lets look first at who the teams played and beat (or lost to).  Clearly Michigan had more 'Signature Wins' with 3 against teams ranked in the top 25 of the RPI.  However, as you make your way down through the comparison, you can see where Michigan's resume' begins to weaken.  Between teams ranked 26 and 100 Michigan went just 1-5, while Monmouth was 4-3.  But another criteria the committee is known to look at is the records of the teams against all the teams currently under consideration, or having clinched a bid, in the field.  Michigan has 12 losses against the those teams, the largest number of any the 76 teams that fit the criteria.  It doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that Michigan is well suited to compete with the field as a whole. 

Where games are played ultimately favored Monmouth.  They had just as many top 50 wins on the Road or on a Neutral Court as Michigan.  Remember that all Tournament games are played on Neutral courts, so the committee wants to know who can win games away from their own Gym, and in particular, against quality opponents.  Additionally, Monmouth challenged themselves in a way Michigan clearly didn't.  Of Monmouth's 34 games, they played 23 of them away from their home court, winning 17 of them.  Michigan played less than half away from Ann Arbor and went just 9-7. 

When you look at who the two teams played, Monmouth played a considerably more difficult Non-Conference Schedule, a factor I discussed last week when comparing teams that may otherwise seem even or close.  Given all that, I have Monmouth as the last team in Today (They could still lose it, by the way should Georgia go on to win the SEC Tourney who is tied with Kentucky late in the first half of their game with Kentucky) and Michigan as the last team out.  Had Michigan won today, they would have been in on my board, regardless of how they would have done tomorrow.