Every NCAA Selection Committee seems to have a slightly different set of criteria for choosing it's At Large Teams than the one before it. It's ultimately a subjective task, and what one committee member values can often be very different than another's. The make-up of the committee changes year over year, so these differences year over year in what seems to get one team in over another is to be expected.
However, there are trends that have emerged over the past couple of years that I think can be instructive in evaluating this year's crop of bubble teams. I have identified a few and tried to identify teams that may be helped or hurt in their chances to secure a bid if the trend holds. Here's one for today:
Non-Conference Strength of Schedule:
One of the trends which seems to have held steady is that the Committee doesn't like to award teams who played weak (200+ NC SOS Rank) non-conference schedules. The thought is, if you want to be considered for an At-Large Bid, you better have scheduled games against Tournament Worthy competition in your non-league schedule.
There are 351 NCAA Division 1 Men's Basketball Programs. Each team's schedule is ranked (Using RPI) from 1 to 351 based on the outcome to date of every team's game. In addition to the overall strength of schedule based on every team you play, there is a separate metric that measures the quality of just your non-conference opponents. The goal, seemingly, is to identify which teams tried to beef up their win totals by playing a soft schedule outside of league play, which the team has no control over. It has been used often as a way of breaking ties between teams that otherwise look similar on paper.
A classic example of this can be found in 2014 when a 23-9 SMU team with a 12-6 Conference record missed the cut, while 21-13 NC State Team with just a 9-9 Conference Record made it. Comparing some of the common measurements of the two:
SMU NC STATE
Vs. RPI TOP 25: 3-4 1-7
Vs RPI TOP 50: 4-5 3-9
Road/Nuetral Record: 8-8 8-7
NC SOS Rank 303 87
While SMU had both more wins, and a better winning percentage against both the RPI top 25 and RPI top 50, and virtually equal record in Road and Neutral Court games, NC State was awarded one of the last At-Large Bids while SMU was relegated to the NIT.
Teams on the bubble with NC SOS greater than 200 at the current time who need to be extra worried come Selection Sunday:
Butler - 255
George Washington - 238
LSU - 200
These teams have played much tougher NC schedules, and may get more consideration than their record vs. RPI top 25 and 50 Teams might suggest:
Florida - NCSOS Rank 3, 2-6 vs. Top 25 and 2-8 vs. Top 50
Vanderbilt - NCSOS Rank 50, 2-6 vs. Top 25 and Top 50
Gonzaga - NCSOS Rank 68, 0-2 vs. top 25 and 1-5 vs Top 50.
Another worth keeping an eye on is Wichita State, one of the most intriguing teams to try and project in the field. They currently project as an Automatic bid by virtue of being the regular season champion of the Missouri Valley Conference. But to actually get the bid, they have to win the Conference Tournament. If they don't, then they are likely to find themselves hip deep in the bubble discussion.
Their NC SOS is 13th, but have just one win against the RPI top 50 and are below .500 against the RPI top 100.
By the way, they play Northern Iowa Saturday, who beat them earlier this season. If they lose, look for Wichita State to be one of the most highly discussed team, weather they make the field or not leading up to the revealing of the field, and in the pundit chatter afterwards.
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