The Battle for the 4th #1 Seed:
Selection Sunday is now just 9 days away, and with the the regular season wrapping up for the major conferences and some conference tournaments underway, we are about to enter a pretty dynamic period in the run up to March 17th.
I hope to publish a new seed list tomorrow, and full Bracket Projection on Monday as we head into the last week.
Today, I thought I would start off with my thoughts on a popular discussion topic in the last 10 days or so before the field is annouced ... 'Who will get the #1 Seeds?'
#1 Seed Locks:
I feel confident saying that 3 of the 4 number 1 seeds are all but sown up now.
- Purdue - #1 Over all
- UConn
- Houston
All three of these teams have had Quad 1 Road wins. Purdue may very well have sewn up the #1 overall seed with a top 15 Net road win over Illinois. Similarly, UConn had one over Marquette, allowing them to leap frog Houston to the second #1 Seed. Houston also won on the road over UCF, ranked 65 in the net, but not considered to be a team in consideration for an At-Large Bid, opening the door for UConn to slip past them. The difference between UConn and Houston is very small, and it will be interesting to see which emerges as the higher number one seed by Selection Sunday. It's possible either could also pass Purdue for the #1 overall, but would probably require Purdue lose its regular season finale, and bow out of its first game in the Big Ten Conference tournament to open a door for either to catch them.
The fight for the final #1 seed
I think is going to be VERY interesting to watch this battle unfold. I believe there are 7 teams in contention for the final #1 Seed. Here is how I rank them today with a comment or two on what I believe thier chances are to secure it.
- Tennessee - Picked up a big win at South Carolina this week to move up to the #1 Seed Line ahead of Arizona who hasn't played yet this week. They finish the regular season with a huge home game against Kentucky. Win that, and at least one game in the SEC Tournament, and they will be very difficult to dislodge as the 4th #1 Seed. I think they have the clear inside track to a #1 Seed, but its still a very challenging track to navigate.
- Arizona - Currently my top 2 Seed after falling off the 1 Seed line where they have been for 3 weeks, for me, now. Arizona's path back to the #1 Seed line is tricky, and perhaps the most difficult of anyone vying for the spot. They are not likely to play another Quad 1 Game unless they make it to the PAC 12 Championship and either Washington State or Utah is waiting there for them. They will likely not only need to win out, but they will also need to hope for Tennessee, as well as several teams currently behind them, to flame out early in the their conference tournaments. I suspect even with a deep run ending short of a PAC12 Title, they are likely to get passed by which ever of the teams behind them makes deep runs and wins or plays in their Conference Tournament Championship game.
- North Carolina - The strength of their resume is their road record agains Quad 1 & 2 teams (They are a very strong 7-2 in true road games, in a year ranked road teams are under .500 nationally). They get another great opportunity for one of they valuable wins when they close out the regular season at Duke. And, off course, every Conference Tournament win they secure will be a Nuetral Court Quad 1 or 2 game who also carry a lot of weight. This could offset the fact that at present, they have fewer Quad 1 wins and total Quad 1 and 2 wins then any other team they are currently competing with for the final #1 Seed. Beat Duke, and then get at least 1 Win in the quarter finals of the ACC tournament and they likely pass Arizona regardless of what they do. The rest will depend on what Tennessee does. I like the Tarheels to make a deep ACC Tournament run, and expect them to be in the discussion right up to Selection Sunday.
- Iowa State - They finish the regular season with a Quad 1 Road Game, and then will enter the Big 12 Conference Tournament where any win they get is likely to be a Quad 1 Win. They probably will need to get at least to the Championship game and lose to (only) Houston, to have any chance. Of course they will need help from teams ahead of them, in the form of early Conference tournament losses, to have any shot. One potential factor holding them back may be their 300+ ranked Non-Conference Strength of Schedule. Even if all this falls into place, the committee may still be reluctant to reward them with a #1 Seed with such a weak schedule out of conference.
- Baylor - The difference between Iowa State and Baylor is almost indistguishable, so I think you can say Baylor has the exact same path to a #1 as Iowa State. Whay may ultimately give Baylor a better chance than the Cyclones is Baylor's #75 (and therefore much more challenging) Non-Conference Strength of Schedule. Their 10-2 Non-Conference Record looks much more impressive than Iowa State's 11-2 record when you look at who they each played. While I have them behind Iowa State at present based on current body of work, I actually think they have a better shot at landing the #1 Seed then their conference counterpart. That they could play each other in the Big 12 tournament adds some additional intrigue to sorting these two teams out.
- Marquette - I keep them here only because they will get multiple Quad 1a win opportunities, including potentially with UConn, over the next 9 days. Marquette has played one of the most difficult schedules in the country, and if they were to win out, their resume would stack up very favorably to their competition for the final #1 Seed. Marquette currently has 7 Quad 1 losses, but 3 of them have come to teams who are locks for a #1 Seed, which mitigates the number of Quad 1 losses the committee will have to consider. Only a handful of teams in the country have more than 1 such loss. It's a long shot ... possibly the longest of the 7 Teams on my list vying for the final #1 Seed ... but if they run the table to a Big East title and beat UConn along they way, they will most certainly be in the conversation.
- Kansas - Currently sits as the second #3 Seed on my list, but they have a few things going for them that no one else ahead of them, outside of perhaps Tennessee, does. They currently have 4 wins against top 15 Net teams. OnlyPurdue has more in the entire field, and it matches the total Tennessee has. They have 6 Quad 1a wins ... only Purdue and UConn have more in the field, and matches the total of, again, Tennessee. Their final regular season game is on the road at Net #1 Houston, and they are in the unquie position of potentially being able to win head to head against 2 of the teams currently ahead of them in the Big 12 tournament (Iowa State and Baylor). Throw in that they could also get another shot at Houston and you see how if they catch fire and win out, they could find themselves on the 1 Seed line.
I don't recall this much competition for the final #1 seed this late in the season before, and games this weekend could go aways to whittling down the list. However, its possible all 7 could still be in contention for it heading into conference tournament play. If I was forced to wager on who would get it, I'd put my money on Tennessee. However if the Vols stumble, my next choice would likely be North Carolina followed by Baylor.
