Bracket Prophet Projections Return

"What a long strange trip it's been"

The last time I posted here was March 11th, 2020. It was a Wednesday, and I was gearing up for my second favorite sports weekend of the year, when the NCAA Men's Basketball Major Conference Tournaments would be held, final projections for the Men's Championship Tournament would be published, and would conclude with Tournament Selection show on Sunday evening. That Sunday evening is the time when bracket projection nerds like me would learn just how well, or poorly, we had done projecting the field of 68 Teams included in the Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament. In less than 48 hours after that post, our nation would change forever. On Friday, March 13th at approximately 12:30 PM CST, at half time of the first game of the Big East Tournament Friday slate of games featuring Creighton and St. John's, the Big East Tournament was cancelled. Every remaining conference tournament followed suit within minutes, and the United States was plunged into what we all would go on to call the COVID-19 Pandemic. The NCAA Men's basketball tournament was cancelled. The country essentially shut down that day. 

 Among the many things that changed in my life that day was my passion for college basketball, and for sports more generally. Slowly my interest in the sports I used to follow so closely has returned. But my decade plus long passion for attempting to project the NCAA Men's tournament field didn't. 

 The following year the NCAA Tournament was held, but it wasn't the same. In fact, the season wasn't the same. Games during the regular season were played in largely empty gyms. One conference refused to compete at all. The NCAA Tournament itself was played solely in sites the state of Indiana. Venues were limited to 25% capacity. Artificial crowd noise was pumped into gymnasiums during games. I don't think I watched more than a few passing minutes of college basketball the entire season. I remember wondering if I would ever regain in interest in the sport, or what I once considered the greatest sporting event in the world, its Champion crowning tournament. 

In 2022 my passion turned to local politics, and I became deeply involved in helping candidates with their campaigns for local school board. I had Neither the interest or time that year to watch college basketball, let alone try to project an NCAA Tournament field. 

Last year, I undertook running my own campaign for school board, and once again had no time to watch college basketball or project a field. With the college basketball landscape largely returning to normal, I did find myself watching the occasional Badger game when time permitted. My interest in the sport was slowing starting to return. 

Early in the 2023/24 College Basketball season, and knowing my involvement in Spring elections in 2024 would be a fraction of the previous two years, I committed to returning to this hobby that I once loved so much. And so, here I am again after 4 long and strange years. As I have gotten back into watching games, collecting data and analyzing it, and putting together my first projections in nearly half a decade, my love of college basketball has been renewed. I'm busier now than I have been in past years I have done this, so I doubt I will post as often in February and March as I used to, or offer up quite as much commentary. But I'm going to try. 

And now, without further adieu, here is my first Projection of the NCAA Tournament Field, as of games played through Sunday, January 21st ... and my first since March 11th, 2020.

Seeds and Pairings (Through Games held on 01/21/2024)

Projected True Seed (1-68)