Viewing Guide for Saturday, March 9th

The next 15 days have traditionally been my absolute 15 days on the annual Sports Calendar.  Starting tomorrow and running through Sunday, March 17^th, we will be treated to nearly wall to wall basketball, and seemingly each day with higher profile games, with higher profile stakes than the day before, until we finally arrive at 5:00 PM on the 17^th, when the final field of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is unveiled.

We’ll get a day on Monday the 18^th to collect our collective breath, fill our brackets, get a good night’s sleep, before the Tournament kicks off with Play-in Games from Dayton on March 19^th and 20^th.

And then, the four most glorious days in all of sports, the true ‘March Madness’ kicks off on Thursday. March 21^st.

I am going to try and get out a viewers guide for each day between now and Selection Sunday with what I feel are the most compelling, intriguing or consequentional games of the day, in chronological order.   

Let's get started with tomorrow's games!

11:00 AM – Memphis at FAU (CBS)

There is a lot at stake for both teams, FAU is perched dangerously close to the bubble on my board at a 9 seed, and squarely on the bubble at the Bracket Matrix.  Memphis sits on the outside of the field, 5 spots below the cut line.  Simply put, an FAU win probably seals an At-Large Bid for the Owls and leaves Memphis with a Conference Tournament Championship in the American Association as their only way into the Big Dance.  If Memphis wins, the Tigers could still have a chance, and FAU falls into the dangerous position of being a Bubble Team that could have a bid stolen.

1:00 PM – Texas A&M at Ole Miss (CBS)

Texas A&M is one of the most difficult teams to figure out what to do with.   A month ago, after beating Tennessee by 26 the Aggies looked to be an at-large shoe-in.  They then proceeded to lose 5 straight games, including to Vanderbilt (Net 214) on the road and Arkansas (Net 115) at home.  During that stretch Tennessee also hammered Texas A&M by 34.  The Aggies have 7 Quad 1 wins, including 2 against teams in the top 15 of Net ratings.  That alone would seem to be enough to have them safely in the field.  But the Aggies also have gone 7-4 outside Quads 1&2, include 2-4 against Quad 3, and have 3 Quad 3 losses at HOME, all worst among all teams under consideration for an at-large berth, which on its own would have relegated them to the at-large ash heap long before now.  The Aggies need to get hot, and it starts with this game at Ole Miss (Net 79), which would provide their 12^th Quad 1 or 2 win.  With that win and a couple wins in the SEC Tournament, likely also to be Quad 1 or 2 games, this team would be almost impossible to keep out of the dance with that many high-quality wins, and its why they remain on ‘Next 4 Out’ line.

2:00 PM – South Florida at Tulsa (Not Televised)

I know, I know!  I said this was a viewers guide, and I included a game you won't be able to view.  South Florida is just to interesting of a story not to find an excuse to talk about them. They currently own the nation’s longest win streak at 15 games, have an excellent regular season record of 23-5, and have already clinched a regular season AAU title with a current record of 16-1 in conference, beating out both FAU and Memphis who were discussed earlier.  South Florida will have the #1 Seed in the AAU Conference Tournament but may not be the favorite to win it.  They are also ranked 24th in the country in the AP Poll.  Yet, very few people feel they will get in if they fail to win their conference Tournament.  I'm actually among them.  More on that another time.  However, their current standing makes them one of my favorite types of team this time of year ... a prime candidate to steal a bid from an At-Large Team on the bubble if they do go on to win their conference tournament, possibly from their very own tournament.  I may not think they have the resume' for an at-large bid, but I am definetely rooting for them to win their tournament.  Having said all that, I do think a win tomorrow and a couple of key wins in a deep tournament run that falls short to FAU in the Championship game likely will put them in consideration for an At-Large.

3:00 PM – Kansas at Houston (ESPN) and  Kentucky at Tennessee (CBS)

Impossible for me to choose one or the other to focus on.  These are two of the three best games on the schedule tomorrow.  All sorts of #1 Seed implications here as I wrote about yesterday.  I need to figure out how to get my DirecTV PIP functioning again by the time these games tip off!

5:30 PM – North Carolina at Duke (ESPN)

Do yourself a favor and just plan on ordering in tomorrow because as soon as the 3:00 games end, North Carolina and Duke will square off.  This arguably the most compelling rivalry in all of College Basketball, and is usually the case, the stakes are very high.  North Carolina can win the ACC Regular Season title outright with a win, secure the #1 Seed in the ACC Tournament, and notch a huge win in the quest for a #1 Seed, particularly if Tennessee falters.  Duke, with a win, would split the season series with the Tarheels, earn a share of the ACC Regular Season Title and possibly a shot at the ACC Tournament #1 Seed.   It would do wonders for improving seed position in the At-Large Field.

7:00 PM – Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Championship – Teams TBD (ESPN2)

The first ticket to the big dance will be officially punched for the winner of this game.  The participants will be determined this evening.   Western Illinois (4 Seed) squares off against Little Rock (1 Seed) at 7:00 PM in the first Semi-Final, and the other will feature Morehead State (3 Seed) playing UT-Martin at 9:30 PM.

7:30 PM – New Mexico at Utah State (CBS Sports Net)

This will be my last game tomorrow before falling into a slumber to rest up for another spectacular day of games on Sunday.  Earlier this week Utah State clinched a shar of the Mountain West Regular Season title with a win over San Jose State.  New Mexico on the other hand is another enigma sitting squarely on the bubble, with most having them as one of the very last, if not last team, above the cut line.  I frankly have them in the ‘Next Four Out’, and an outlier from the majority at the Bracket Matrix.  New Mexico currently possesses a net of 32.  No team with a NET that high has failed to make the tournament.  But a closer look at their resume’ reveals remarkable weakness for a team with that high of a Net ranking.  They are just 2-6 against Quad 1 teams, and 1-4 against Quad1a teams, with only 1 win away from their home floor against teams with a net below 163.  They remained in the field for me until they dropped a Quad 4 game at home against Air Force (Net 270) back on February 24^th.  A win here would be a signature 1a road win and could possibly cement them into the At-Large field.  I personally need to see more before I’m prepared to move them back into the field.  A loss though may very well be what gets them moved out of the field with other bracketologists, and most importantly, the committee, barring a deep run in the Mountain West Tournament.