Why Wake Forest? Well, one of the posters at 'Old Gold and Black Boards' linked my blog in a Bracketology discussion (http://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/27440-Bracketology-2017/), and cut and pasted my post on what we might have learned from last year that we can apply to this year's bubble teams. It prompted some discussion, and thought I might address some of the points made here and just post a link to it in their message board when I get permission, for those interested in what I have to say on the subject of Wake Forest, as they stand, today.
A few things worth noting before I dive in ... I have absolutely no rooting interest, one way or the other, as it relates to Wake Forest being selected or left out. I'm not a big fan of the ACC, and in fact, typically root against most of the ACC 'Big Dogs' ... North Carolina (Can't stand Roy Williams), Louisville (Can't stand Rick Pitino), and Duke (They beat my Wisconsin Badgers for the National Title and I still haven't gotten over it). I like Virginia, but only because I'm a huge Tony Bennett fan. The opinions I offer on Wake are rooted in numbers and analysis and not due to any love or disdain for the program. In fact, I don't know that I can think of a program I am more ambivalent about.
Also worth noting, is that I acknowledge that my theories may be complete bullshit. I try to root them in some facts, and the experience of doing this as a hobby for a decade now ... but beyond that, I'm just a dude who likes to spend a month or two a year crunching numbers and seeing if I can do better than Joe Lunardi (I did last year, btw) at picking the fielding, and projecting the seeding of the teams selected.
So ... on to Wake Forest. First, the discussion on that board made me go back and look more closely at Wake Forest, and where I had them on my 'Bubble Board'. After closer inspection, I moved them up a few spots, and they are now in my list of 'Next Four Out' ... pushing Ole Miss out of that grouping.
Next, the biggest question that seems to be raised in relation to my blog post is where Wake stands if they beat Louisville. In my opinion, if Wake beats Louisville, the entire landscape for Wake changes. Most importantly, they get the critical 'O-Fer' vs. top 25 off their back. Next, they get a Top 10 Win! The only other bubble teams with a Top 10 Win are Marquette, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Tennessee and Indiana have. I have Marquette, Vanderbilt, G-Tech in the field, and Tennessee as first team out and K-State as 3rd Team out. With 0 Losses outside the top 100, my guess is they catapult right to the cusp of getting in. Follow that with a win over Va-Tech and at least 1 Tourney win, and they will be a hot topic on Selection Sunday. Lose, and they're left needing a deep tourney run, with at least 2 wins over top 50 teams, and 1 of them top 25, along with a win in the regular season finale vs. Va-Tech to get in.
I did notice someone on the board indicate that they think Wake's resume' is unique, and there isn't a similar one from last year to compare to. I respectfully disagree. I actually think the Florida Gators of 15/16 have a very similar resume' to what Wake has now.
'16 Florida '17 Wake
RPI 46 38
NC-SOS Rank 5 (10-5 Record) 21 (9-3 Record)
Vs. Top 25 1-7 0-8
Vs. Top 50 2-8 1-9 (2-10 with L to LU and W over VT)
Vs. Top 100 7-13 8-12
Vs. Top 150 12-14 10-12
vs 100+ 12-1 8-0
While no comparison is perfect, that is pretty close, and could be even closer depending on how the regular season and conference tourney bare out for Wake Forest. Florida was likely not under discussion for a big after losing in the 2nd round of the SEC Tourney last year. This further illustrates the importance of beating Louisville and at least one more Top 50 Team before the ACC Tourney ends to get in.
The problem Wake Forest has is they haven't beaten anyone. Yes, they have played a difficult schedule, and have no bad losses. At some point though, and I think last year's at-large selections largely bare this out, it doesn't matter how tough your schedule is if you don't win some games against the top 50 and get at least 1 against a top 25. Are there exceptions ... yes, Dayton and USC last year had 0 Top 25 wins. It is possible Wake could be one this year, especially if they can get at least 2 Top 50 wins before their conference tourney run ends. But the likelihood is that short of that or a win over Louisville, they aren't even getting discussed by the Committee on Selection Weekend, let alone getting in.
Finally, I saw a couple notes complaining about who I have identified as bubble teams. Specifically, someone was particularly hacked off that TCU and Pitt are on that list. I don't disagree. I personally feel as though neither team is worthy of even being discussed at this point. But it's not my call ... and there are enough people out there who believe they are, that they need to be included in a list of teams under consideration. I learned a hard lesson last year when Tulsa was selected for the at Large field and I stopped tracking them after they got blown out in the first round of the Conf USA Tournament by an RPI 136 Team. My 'Scope' is much broader this year as a result.
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